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Post by scoob on Feb 13, 2017 23:45:17 GMT
There has been a great deal of talk about the purchase/improvement /development of the stadium on several threads but a lot of that talk has been as though it is some sort of charity case. It is not, it is a sound business in its own right. It may need some additional initial investment to create an environment that we all want. Initially improvements to the current facility followed closely (possibly concurrently) development to enable it to accommodate Championship football.
We need to start thinking of the stadium as a sound business, not a charity. This will enable the Community Trust to raise more capital to help secure the future of OUFC than by having a charity mentality. It seems to me that the current mindset is that anyone investing in the stadium regards that as giving money to a charity/throwing it away forever. That should not be the case if it is run properly on sound business principles.
OUFC currently pay rent and I expect that to continue. I feel that the current rent of around £500,000 is reasonable based on the facility that OUFC receive and they should receive extra benefit once the Community Trust take ownership. OUFC will benefit significantly if the Stadium is run on sound business principles by the new Community Trust. It will provide a stable base both physically and financially for the future of the football club. The club will be able to benefit from having greater access to the Stadium and the returns that can be brought from that (e.g. catering/hospitality/club shop within stadium/larger crowd capacity) but it may have to pay higher rent to enable the Trust to invest in increasing capacity.
I have no knowledge of what the stadium will cost to purchase but for ease of maths I will work on £10,000,000 with improvements of £2,500,000 and development of £7,500,000. This will give a 20,000 capacity stadium with a good standard of facilities at a cost of £1000 per seat. These figures are roughly in line with figures quoted by forum members who probably have a better idea than most of us but may not be totally accurate. These figures may be sufficient but additional funds may be needed to cover legal/professional costs and to provide working capital.
There are three primary ways of paying for the stadium and those are through share issue, loans and mortgage. Lets look at each of those:
Share Issue. Aim to raise £4,000,000 from this source. This would provide 20% of the capital required. After 20-30 years those shareholders would own the stadium outright meaning their initial investment would have risen to £20,000,000 plus growth. This may take 20-30 years but at least a five fold return over that term would provide a reasonable return on capital invested. It is of course possible that the shareholders could trade their shares in the meantime and take profit (or loss) depending upon performance. It is likely that over a period of time a dividend could be paid when debt has been reduced considerably (5 years?). The stadium does not need to be seen as a great money maker but equally it should provide returns in the long term.
Loan Notes (or similar). Aim to raise £4,000,000 from this source. The loan notes would be secured against the stadium capital value and would rank behind the mortgage but ahead of share capital so would be relatively secure provided that the stadium is run properly. For example, these could be issued over 5 and10 years with a coupon of 1% and 2% respectively. These would pay relatively good returns compared to bank savings accounts and could be seen as assisting the Community Trust whilst giving some short term return. If the average coupon on these notes was 1.5% then the cost would be half that of a mortgage and would not require capital repayment in the first five years enabling the mortgage debt to be repaid at a decent rate. The annual cost of these notes would be £60,000 but would save the same amount in mortgage interest. After 5 and 10 years these Notes could either be partially repaid and/or replaced by new Notes at interest rates reflecting comparable returns elsewhere. Share Issues and Loan Notes providing potential/actual returns would be far more attractive to the wider community than expecting gifts from far fewer people. It should be relatively easy to market these options when suggesting that the people of Oxforshire (and beyond) can come together to provide a legacy for the future of the county. It could also attract a wider fan base where people feel really involved.
Mortgage over 30 years. After development this should amount to around £12,000,000 which would cost just over £600,000 per annum at 3% (Interest £360,000 Capital £240,000). Personally I would set the repayments at a higher level of £860,000 per annum meaning that the overpayments would be sufficient to cover an interest rate of 6%. This would mean capital being repaid faster and should reduce the term of the mortgage (£500,000 capital per year). I believe that this would be prudent, flexible and affordable but would mean a significant rent increase for the club (see below). Of course if additional capital could be raised by share issue and/or loan notes then the mortgage costs reduce by an equivalent amount.
The overall cost of the loan notes and mortgage would be £920,000. The Stadium currently produces cash each year (prior to tax) of well in excess of £500,000 (last 3 years = £930k, £673k & £908k) with the worst recent performance being £560k in 2012 but London Welsh would have boosted recent performance. The Stadco pays hardly any interest and no capital repayments so the Loan Notes and Mortgage would reduce the cash production to negative by around £400k. The club pays around £500k in rent plus Service Charges. The Mortgage and Loan Notes would mean that the club would probably have to pay rent of between £750,000 and £1,000,000 (see below). It is impossible to give an accurate figure for this without knowing detailed information about the Stadco performance.
What would the Club benefit from the new Community Trust Stadium Ownership? I see the primary gains being:
OUFC Ltd and OUFC Community Trust working together for the overall benefit of OUFC (The C in OUFC representing the fans).
Service Charges and costs would be transparent.
Whilst the rent for the stadium was high with Conference and League Two gates we should look at crowds/estimated revenue. This season has seen an increase in crowds by about 1300 per game which will increase revenue by £450,000 at an average of £15 per ticket pre VAT with only an inflation covering rent increase. A further similar increase in a League One promotion season or partly from increased ground capacity would add a similar amount. If we rise to the Championship and see crowds increase by 4,000 per game (taking us to an average of 12,500) with a 20% increase in average ticket price that would increase revenue from just those 4,000 extra seats of £1.7 Million. If crowds increased to what would be a competitive lower table average of 16,500 that would add another £1.7Million in ticket sales. A modest increase in rent of between £250,000 to £500,000 would enable the stadium to be developed to house those increased ticket sales.
The club would also benefit from any other revenue streams such as advertising, hospitality with more lounges, concourse catering and more in ground merchandising outlets. The increased rent could be covered more than ten times if we become an established Championship club.
Risks
Demotion back to league one or lower whilst increase rent has to be maintained. This has to be balanced against the fact that OUFC Ltd owner would have to have invested £20M to purchase and develop the stadium himself or with partners. This would be in addition to any additional seasonal investment to keep the club going.
Club runs into financial trouble due to increased financial pressures in the Championship and the owner does not have spare cash to cover theses losses and subsequently can’t pay rent. Reserves have to be built to cover this possibility.
Disputes between tenant and owner requiring legal costs/potential bad debt. Difficult to overcome but if the whole scheme is set up primarily for the benefit of OUFC Ltd then this scenario should not arise.
Overall we are close to having the opportunity to positively influence and help safeguard the future of our club. The Oxvox/Council scheme may be totally different to this but the overall cost will be in the region of £20M so to expect a significant amount of that to come from individuals with little opportunity for return will be difficult.
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Post by devilsalley on Feb 14, 2017 0:14:21 GMT
Exellent and informative post by scoop.
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Post by devilsalley on Feb 14, 2017 0:14:59 GMT
Could be scoob even.
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Post by makv on Feb 14, 2017 0:42:05 GMT
Summary?
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Post by kidintheriot on Feb 14, 2017 0:54:18 GMT
Good post but some of the numbers will need to be re-worked if you are looking to attract the wider community rather than die-hard fans. You can get ~2% for a 5 year bond (which doesn't have the risk of sitting behind a mortgage claim) at the moment, so while 1% and 2% for 5 and 10 year issues are an incentive vs "giving to charity or throwing away for ever" they are not going to attract true financial investors.
Of course your numbers are probably based on ease of maths as you say, and its refreshing to see it finally being discussed as an investment.
Also on the risk issues re club not being able to make rent, the stadium has at least limited downside in that it could presumably be sold off for housing.
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Post by saddletramp on Feb 14, 2017 5:20:29 GMT
Sorry,absolute fantasy.
"I have no knowledge of what the stadium will cost to purchase but for ease of maths I will work on £10,000,000"
Kassam wants £14m why would he take a £4m "hit" ?
"with improvements of £2,500,000" I know its a dump,but just where would you spend £2.5 mill ?
"I feel that the current rent of around £500,000 is reasonable" The whole stadium issue has come about because the rent is bleeding the club dry,you are the first person i've come across that thinks its reasonable.
A £12 million mortgage ? With Oxford losing money hand over fist,just where would we get that mortgage ? Also IF we did secure a mortgage,that would be secured on the stadium,first sign of trouble the bank would repossess,community stadium or not,so what then ?
"If crowds increased to what would be a competitive lower table average of 16,500" 16.5K ? I know we are on the up,but thats DOUBLE our current average and 5k+ more than we've EVER averaged.
"with a 20% increase in average ticket price that would increase revenue from just those 4,000 extra seats" ONLY 20% why not 100% ? that would double our income,only attendances would drop not increase. Do you really think people would be happy with a 20% increase ? People are moaning about ticket prices now.
A nice read,amused me anyway.
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Post by Gary Baldi on Feb 14, 2017 8:31:15 GMT
The unknown would be how the StadCo would operate outside of the match days. Clearly development to facilities would add more risk, but also more opportunity. I would think the club would look for a lower rent and have used other clubs as examples.
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Post by Paul Cannell on Feb 14, 2017 8:35:04 GMT
He pines for the days when life was simpler and misses Nick Merry.
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Post by scoob on Feb 14, 2017 9:00:32 GMT
Good post but some of the numbers will need to be re-worked if you are looking to attract the wider community rather than die-hard fans. You can get ~2% for a 5 year bond (which doesn't have the risk of sitting behind a mortgage claim) at the moment, so while 1% and 2% for 5 and 10 year issues are an incentive vs "giving to charity or throwing away for ever" they are not going to attract true financial investors. Of course your numbers are probably based on ease of maths as you say, and its refreshing to see it finally being discussed as an investment. Also on the risk issues re club not being able to make rent, the stadium has at least limited downside in that it could presumably be sold off for housing. Yes possibly higher rates would be needed and I am aware that these would not be competitive in the wider market but many on here have been talking about what are effectively gifts with little or no hope of return. If Loans/bonds are issued they need to be at a rate that makes the financing of the stadium possible. The sales pitch needs to be on the basis of giving the trust medium term assistance with a small return rather than no return and no possibility of getting money back. To be honest my post is meant to prompt meaningful discussion on what is possible. I'm sure Charlie will mention WE which is fair enough but I prefer to look at the here and now and discuss how the purchase and development can be achieved.
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Post by scoob on Feb 14, 2017 9:10:00 GMT
Sorry,absolute fantasy. "I have no knowledge of what the stadium will cost to purchase but for ease of maths I will work on £10,000,000" Kassam wants £14m why would he take a £4m "hit" ? "with improvements of £2,500,000" I know its a dump,but just where would you spend £2.5 mill ? "I feel that the current rent of around £500,000 is reasonable" The whole stadium issue has come about because the rent is bleeding the club dry,you are the first person i've come across that thinks its reasonable. A £12 million mortgage ? With Oxford losing money hand over fist,just where would we get that mortgage ? Also IF we did secure a mortgage,that would be secured on the stadium,first sign of trouble the bank would repossess,community stadium or not,so what then ? "If crowds increased to what would be a competitive lower table average of 16,500" 16.5K ? I know we are on the up,but thats DOUBLE our current average and 5k+ more than we've EVER averaged. "with a 20% increase in average ticket price that would increase revenue from just those 4,000 extra seats" ONLY 20% why not 100% ? that would double our income,only attendances would drop not increase. Do you really think people would be happy with a 20% increase ? People are moaning about ticket prices now. A nice read,amused me anyway. Clearly a post by someone who knows very little. Let's wait and see re price of Stadium. Everyone assumes that the overflow will be retained by Kassam as part of the deal and that is highly valuable land. Have a look at Championship Tickets prices. If we want to be competitive prices will need to rise with relatively small crowds even at 16,500 and I believe that the majority will be happy to pay. I would be happy to pay £25 per game to sit on the half way line in the North Stand as I do now and I'm sure plenty more will to see teams on a regular basis that we dreamed of playing only a couple of years ago. We were paying almost £20 to watch Conference cloggers!! I'm not going to give much further justification to my statement re rent. It may be high now bearing in mind the landlord takes so much more but OUFC will have access to wider income streams under Trust Ownership. Bye the way The Trust will own the ground not OUFC which removes s significant layer of risk to both operations. If we want to stick in the Championship bold brave decisions have to be made.
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Post by myles on Feb 14, 2017 9:16:28 GMT
"with improvements of £2,500,000" I know its a dump,but just where would you spend £2.5 mill ? £2.5m may actually be conservative. The stadium is now over 15 years old and has had no significant preventative maintenance carried out on it in that time. Inspecting, resealing, and repainting the structural steelwork could easily swallow up £1m alone.
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Post by charliesghost on Feb 14, 2017 11:28:29 GMT
Thank you, Scoob, for making the effort to get a sensible head around this complex and multi-faceted issue. One of the reasons I post so regularly, and at length, on this theme is that it is simply the biggest question mark facing our club by a distance.
Will we get into the play-offs? Maybe, who knows, but league performance comes and goes. Will the current chairman stick with the project despite recent pronouncements? Maybe, who knows, but owners of football clubs come and go.
The two constants, normally, are the stadium and the fans. Get those two things right, strategically, and it will both be more attractive to current and prospective owners and more likely to prosper on the pitch in a sustainable manner.
Your estimate as to the total cost of the Grenoble Road project is about right, I reckon. It's going to cost £20 million, or a bit more, to gain control of the stadium and turn it into an arena fit for Championship football. Since our fanbase is clearly large enough for sustainable Championship football (unlike Burton, say, or even Rotherham) any stadium strategy simply has to encompass this ambition.
Otherwise, we will be deeply unattractive to prospective owners and thus less sustainable, even in League 1, as who wants to buy a League 1 club that cannot progress? Darryl has already implicity said this himself.
Whether we choose to create a sustainable arena at Grenoble Road or elsewhere, the pre-requisite is getting control of Grenoble Road. That is why I am supportive of OxVox's negotiations with FK and the OCC. In a way, the rest of what you mention starts there. Because without control of the stadium, all other bets are off. So if I were advising OxVox, I'd be suggesting that they look to raise enough money to buy the stadium and 'make it good' in safety terms (see Myles' post for further details). I expect these two aims to be a £10 million bill, taken together.
At that point, the StadCo Trust will inevitably take a deep breath and work out what to do next. And there will be many considerations to take into account, not just financial but also logistical. Parking (part of the deal will see our parking more than halved); traffic flows (I have heard it said that the County Council would not countenance a doubling of traffic, because of the impact on road users); financial ROI (you discuss this topic intelligently, as it depends on the club's willingness to pay increased rent).
In my personal view, the new Trust - having looked at all the above - will decide to move elsewhere. Financially and logistically, it stacks up so much better. But other things might change. A new Unitary Council may decide to allow development south of Grenoble Road, enabling more parking and a new road. An OUFC owner may decide simply to pay the £10 million bill to enlarge the stadium because he is in a hurry and has the money. Or it may pan out as you suggest. But first things first, and that is buying Grenoble Road. As you rightly say, there is a sound business there and one that can be made better before even expansion takes place.
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Post by Mark on Feb 14, 2017 14:41:16 GMT
What I am struggling to get my head around with is the concept of the stadium being community owned, but the primary user still being a tenant.
Without substantial investment, the ground is only fit for bouncing around in L1 and as we saw in L2 the crowds aren't much more than 7K.
So why would anyone other than the club / owner of the club find the money for the investment to finish off the ground, when they don't actually own the ground?
Would a situation come along when the Trust was persuaded it was in the best interest of the club to rejoin club and stadium ownership? Or perhaps grant a long lease so that the club owner can pay for improvements knowing they are getting the benefits?
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Post by witney50 on Feb 14, 2017 15:48:51 GMT
A long read to get to one question.
Why would DE sign up to a rent increase...
I would expect that he would want to negotiate a decrease in annual operating costs...the loans, stadium business model, share issues etc. are not his problem or responsibility.
Increased costs will drive him to take the club elsewhere.
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Post by scoob on Feb 14, 2017 17:58:28 GMT
A long read to get to one question. Why would DE sign up to a rent increase... I would expect that he would want to negotiate a decrease in annual operating costs...the loans, stadium business model, share issues etc. are not his problem or responsibility. Increased costs will drive him to take the club elsewhere. As already explained the relatively small additional rent increase (if funded as in my first post and I accept there could be many other alternatives) would give a decent quality stadium with an increase in capacity of at least 8,000. A venue fit for Championship Football with no need to commit between 10 and 20 million himself. There should be additional hospitality facilities and lounges to provide additional income streams. The option to create revenue streams for non match days. Retail opportunities etc etc. All of this funded by "the Community". I believe that if this can all be set up in a sustainable way then in the long term the rent could fall (5-10 years after completion). The stadium is for the long term and, as fans, that is what should concern us. Short term let's pack the place and enjoy the football that DE has bought for us!
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Post by ox4eva on Feb 14, 2017 18:11:20 GMT
A 16,500 capacity is large enough for us. A two tear 4k capacity stand at the fence end becomes our new home end and the top tier is only used for big games. Away fans could be moved to the east stand and it could also be used half and half with home fans for big games!
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Post by myles on Feb 14, 2017 19:34:35 GMT
A 16,500 capacity is large enough for us. Only if you have no ambition to be an established Championship club.
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Post by ox4eva on Feb 14, 2017 19:54:39 GMT
A 16,500 capacity is large enough for us. Only if you have no ambition to be an established Championship club. Or never had average crowd anywhere near it in our history.
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Post by Mark on Feb 14, 2017 20:01:16 GMT
Six out of the Kassam stadium's thirteen 11k+ crowds have been under Appleton. And we've been in the ground 16 years or so.
So there is an appetite for good football in Oxfordshire.
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Post by scoob on Feb 14, 2017 22:53:03 GMT
Only if you have no ambition to be an established Championship club. Or never had average crowd anywhere near it in our history. Did you ever go to the Manor ground. When we were in the Top Flight the capacity was only about 13,000 `(reduced from previous season due to additional seating) and with crowds of more than 10,000 it was difficult to see all of the game. You had to park two miles from the ground unless you were there two hours before kick off. Tickets were not as easy to buy as they are today either (no internet). Hardly surprising that we only averaged 10,000 ish. For all it faults the Kassam is much easier to get to and everyone has a decent view. A 20,000 seater stadium will allow around 3,000 (maybe more) away supporters for the big teams and 17,000 home. We may not fill it week in week out but to get to a competitive average we need the capacity to be well above what we expect the average to be. In our awesome promotion season from Div2 to Div1 we averaged less than our current average despite having a capacity of about 14,400 and this season we are only mid-table. This suggests that support at Grenoble Road is well ahead of those seasons already and I believe it will increase considerably as we move up towards the Championship.
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Post by Junior on Feb 15, 2017 3:48:15 GMT
14,400 in the manor in the 90s? Not a chance. Around 11k and that's at a push.
As for capacity if we ever reached the championship. What's Loftus Road hold, 20k?
QPR have bounced between the Premiership and championship with that stadium at worst they are a middle of the road championship club. Size of the ground ( with shocking parking ) dosen't do them no harm.
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Post by saddletramp on Feb 15, 2017 4:58:52 GMT
Sorry,absolute fantasy. "I have no knowledge of what the stadium will cost to purchase but for ease of maths I will work on £10,000,000" Kassam wants £14m why would he take a £4m "hit" ? "with improvements of £2,500,000" I know its a dump,but just where would you spend £2.5 mill ? "I feel that the current rent of around £500,000 is reasonable" The whole stadium issue has come about because the rent is bleeding the club dry,you are the first person i've come across that thinks its reasonable. A £12 million mortgage ? With Oxford losing money hand over fist,just where would we get that mortgage ? Also IF we did secure a mortgage,that would be secured on the stadium,first sign of trouble the bank would repossess,community stadium or not,so what then ? "If crowds increased to what would be a competitive lower table average of 16,500" 16.5K ? I know we are on the up,but thats DOUBLE our current average and 5k+ more than we've EVER averaged. "with a 20% increase in average ticket price that would increase revenue from just those 4,000 extra seats" ONLY 20% why not 100% ? that would double our income,only attendances would drop not increase. Do you really think people would be happy with a 20% increase ? People are moaning about ticket prices now. A nice read,amused me anyway. Clearly a post by someone who knows very little. Let's wait and see re price of Stadium. Everyone assumes that the overflow will be retained by Kassam as part of the deal and that is highly valuable land. Have a look at Championship Tickets prices. If we want to be competitive prices will need to rise with relatively small crowds even at 16,500 and I believe that the majority will be happy to pay. I would be happy to pay £25 per game to sit on the half way line in the North Stand as I do now and I'm sure plenty more will to see teams on a regular basis that we dreamed of playing only a couple of years ago. We were paying almost £20 to watch Conference cloggers!! I'm not going to give much further justification to my statement re rent. It may be high now bearing in mind the landlord takes so much more but OUFC will have access to wider income streams under Trust Ownership. Bye the way The Trust will own the ground not OUFC which removes s significant layer of risk to both operations. If we want to stick in the Championship bold brave decisions have to be made. "Clearly a post by someone who knows very little" Replying to a post from someone who know even less. We are a mid table league One team who attracted 7k last night,yet you are going to make us competitive in the championship by increasing the ticket prices by 20% and the crowds by 120% ?
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Post by saddletramp on Feb 15, 2017 5:16:55 GMT
Or never had average crowd anywhere near it in our history. Did you ever go to the Manor ground. When we were in the Top Flight the capacity was only about 13,000 `(reduced from previous season due to additional seating) and with crowds of more than 10,000 it was difficult to see all of the game. You had to park two miles from the ground unless you were there two hours before kick off. Tickets were not as easy to buy as they are today either (no internet). Hardly surprising that we only averaged 10,000 ish. For all it faults the Kassam is much easier to get to and everyone has a decent view. A 20,000 seater stadium will allow around 3,000 (maybe more) away supporters for the big teams and 17,000 home. We may not fill it week in week out but to get to a competitive average we need the capacity to be well above what we expect the average to be. In our awesome promotion season from Div2 to Div1 we averaged less than our current average despite having a capacity of about 14,400 and this season we are only mid-table. This suggests that support at Grenoble Road is well ahead of those seasons already and I believe it will increase considerably as we move up towards the Championship. "Clearly a post by someone who knows very little" You posted on one of my earlier posts. Kettle and black comes to mind. "You had to park two miles from the ground unless you were there two hours before kick off" I dont know about you but i parked in Lime walk,Latimer road or round by the Butchers arm every week,(and got away far quicker.) "Tickets were not as easy to buy as they are today either (no internet)". I agree with this one. That would be because their weren't any,its was pay at the gate ! (Liverpool game when the home end was full me and loads more Oxford paid to go in the Cuckoo lane.) "In our awesome promotion season from Div2 to Div1 we averaged less than our current average" Ah no,sorry wrong again, www.european-football-statistics.co.uk/attnclub/oxfu.htmOur average in that season was, 10,577 !
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Post by scoob on Feb 15, 2017 6:58:05 GMT
That differs from our average on Rageonline but that may have included all cup games, I was a little surprised by the average too, but the rest is down to opinion. I side with Charlie that if we can establish ourselves in the Championship that we will need to attract crowds that are at least in the middle of the Championship averages and I believe that within a season or two we would attract bigger crowds provided all of the infrastructure is in place. Anyway the point was that even at crowds averaging 4,000 higher than today, less than 50%, then any additional costs regarding development can easily be covered and provide a decent return. Any development will probably be done in stages with staged costs as crowds rise. Its not rocket science and, as usual you have a glass half empty attitude. With regards to my own experience I used to get to the parking over an hour and a half before kick off and had to park 20 minutes walk away and remaining spaces were filling quickly. Hardly any spaces were available between Headington Quarry and the ground.
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Post by ox4eva on Feb 15, 2017 6:58:33 GMT
Or never had average crowd anywhere near it in our history. Did you ever go to the Manor ground. When we were in the Top Flight the capacity was only about 13,000 `(reduced from previous season due to additional seating) and with crowds of more than 10,000 it was difficult to see all of the game. You had to park two miles from the ground unless you were there two hours before kick off. Tickets were not as easy to buy as they are today either (no internet). Hardly surprising that we only averaged 10,000 ish. For all it faults the Kassam is much easier to get to and everyone has a decent view. A 20,000 seater stadium will allow around 3,000 (maybe more) away supporters for the big teams and 17,000 home. We may not fill it week in week out but to get to a competitive average we need the capacity to be well above what we expect the average to be. In our awesome promotion season from Div2 to Div1 we averaged less than our current average despite having a capacity of about 14,400 and this season we are only mid-table. This suggests that support at Grenoble Road is well ahead of those seasons already and I believe it will increase considerably as we move up towards the Championship. Rarely missed a game at the manor from 1982 till when we left actually. My reasoning for a 16,500 capacity is because in my personal view we have an hardcore support of 5k to 6k who are diehards. And another 3k or 4k who will come on a semi regular basis. And then we have some who will only turn out for what's seen a big game or a day out at Wembley etc. So in my personal view a 16,500 capacity would just be right for OUFC. Obviously none of our opinions on this subject matter just now because the ground is still under the control of an outsider!
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Post by foley on Feb 15, 2017 7:42:51 GMT
. In our awesome promotion season from Div2 to Div1 we averaged less than our current average despite having a capacity of about 14,400 and this season we are only mid-table. This suggests that support at Grenoble Road is well ahead of those seasons already and I believe it will increase considerably as we move up towards the Championship. Rarely missed a game at the manor from 1982 till when we left actually. My reasoning for a 16,500 capacity is because in my personal view we have an hardcore support of 5k to 6k who are diehards. And another 3k or 4k who will come on a semi regular basis. And then we have some who will only turn out for what's seen a big game or a day out at Wembley etc. So in my personal view a 16,500 capacity would just be right for OUFC. Obviously none of our opinions on this subject matter just now because the ground is still under the control of an outsider! I think that the Championship is a different ball game. If you were to look at Reading and Brighton they probably could have said similar things before their new ground. Were Reading seriously a far larger club than us say 15 years ago? They have significantly increased their supporter base. I agree with Charlie and Scoob in so far as I reckon we could have just as large crowds as Reading so long as the infrastructure is in place.
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Post by scoob on Feb 15, 2017 9:28:24 GMT
Rarely missed a game at the manor from 1982 till when we left actually. My reasoning for a 16,500 capacity is because in my personal view we have an hardcore support of 5k to 6k who are diehards. And another 3k or 4k who will come on a semi regular basis. And then we have some who will only turn out for what's seen a big game or a day out at Wembley etc. So in my personal view a 16,500 capacity would just be right for OUFC. Obviously none of our opinions on this subject matter just now because the ground is still under the control of an outsider! I think that the Championship is a different ball game. If you were to look at Reading and Brighton they probably could have said similar things before their new ground. Were Reading seriously a far larger club than us say 15 years ago? They have significantly increased their supporter base. I agree with Charlie and Scoob in so far as I reckon we could have just as large crowds as Reading so long as the infrastructure is in place. OX4EVA you could be right and we are moving into unknown territory but we currently have very good crowds and have been building from a very low base only a few years ago. Our current capacity has already reduced the average that could have been achieved with a slightly larger ground. People will start getting into the habit of turning up week in week out if we carry on improving. In the Manor days very little marketing was done and the Manor was somewhat restrictive as we moved up. We need a multi faceted transport strategy which I have already discussed elsewhere. There is an opportunity to attract a new da base from the North of the county/South Warwickshire where Coventry fans have deserted their club. Some potentially new fans could be plucked from neutrals in that area. In our old Div One says they were an established L1 club and there are many people who live less than an hour from the Kassam in their catchment area (where I live). Birmingham and Villa are less of a draw in that area too now! I would not advocate jumping straight from 12,000 to 20,000 but planning and financing need to be considered up to this level. We have not achieved stage one yet but I believe that is not too distant so we need to spread the word and use our contacts while Oxvox can say very little.
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Post by foley on Feb 15, 2017 9:49:49 GMT
derably as we move up towards the Championship. Rarely missed a game at the manor from 1982 till when we left actually. My reasoning for a 16,500 capacity is because in my personal view we have an hardcore support of 5k to 6k who are diehards.And another 3k or 4k who will come on a semi regular basis.And then we have some who will only turn out for what's seen a big game or a day out at Wembley etc. So in my personal view a 16,500 capacity would just be right for OUFC. Obviously none of our opinions on this subject matter just now because the ground is still under the control of an outsider! I disagree with this. We currently have 5,500 ST holders? In the Championship my guess is that it would go up to around 8,000. I think that there are a whole load of people who are not particularly bothered in seeing Fleetwood, Southend, Bury etc. But they would go and watch United play Forest, Derby, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Norwich. We get Blackburn in the FA Cup and Newcastle or Birmingham and sell out. Sure in the FA Cup but the extra interest is noticeable. The Championship is now the 'big time' with huge crowds and getting more and more media attention. As others have said this may need to be a structured increase, but I can't believe that the City of Oxford and surrounding areas can not possibly sustain Championship football?
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Post by manorlounger on Feb 15, 2017 10:12:39 GMT
It is sometimes extraordinary that we get as many folk through the turnstiles as we do. Consider the facilities on offer, the fact that the ground is a natural wind tunnel, the inconsistent maintenance of what facilities are available and it is clear that things must change. We are so fortunate to have some reasonable quality on the pitch.
If the stadium is owned by those with an interest in the club progressing then there is hope of improvement. Not just hope, desire to improve, desire to provide an experience that more will come to enjoy. Looking at the Madjeski and Amex stadium shows what can be possible.
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Post by CheltenhamYellow on Feb 15, 2017 10:17:45 GMT
While I agree with many of the points above, and think that the potential for crowds if we hit the championship is in the 14,000-20,000 range, it's worth remembering that we didn't always fill the ground at the Manor, even in the top tier. The attraction of "big" clubs wears off a little for the 'maybe' supporter. Success on the pitch (and attractive football) is a bigger draw (i.e. Mapp, not Wilder).
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