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Post by flean on Nov 29, 2017 12:18:02 GMT
My bad: £50Bn. Or 157x £350M which could be used to fund the NHS instead. So that's the divorce deal settled. How much will UK have to pay for single-market access rights? I heard some talking head last week explain that one Brexiteer in the Cabinet had thought the bill was broken down as: - 2 years of full membership as part of the transition deal - £24 billion
- With a further payment of £20 billion to settle various commitments
I cannot substantiate this (pinch of salt, etc, etc), but it does make sense why both sides would find it acceptable to move onto the next stage. Let's see on trade -both need each other on that one. Do you think it will be a negotiation, or like every other single thing that's been agreed so far, the EU make a demand and the UK agree to it?
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Post by Gary Baldi on Nov 29, 2017 13:09:28 GMT
I heard some talking head last week explain that one Brexiteer in the Cabinet had thought the bill was broken down as: - 2 years of full membership as part of the transition deal - £24 billion
- With a further payment of £20 billion to settle various commitments
I cannot substantiate this (pinch of salt, etc, etc), but it does make sense why both sides would find it acceptable to move onto the next stage. Let's see on trade -both need each other on that one. Do you think it will be a negotiation, or like every other single thing that's been agreed so far, the EU make a demand and the UK agree to it? We'll see won't we. It's all down to next stage. For one, the ECJ nonsense hasn't been agreed to despite their pathetic protestations. It's good to Chukka Ummuna have a face like a smacked arse on the news.
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Post by tonyw on Nov 29, 2017 14:24:23 GMT
It's good to see the Brexiteers and Remainers coming together on an issue - seems like noone is happy with the size of the agreed divorce bill.
Course Farage & co. just want to walk away, and the Remain crowd want to scrap the whole thing, but I don't think anyone thinks that paying 50 billion euros or thereabouts, basically as a fee just to begin talks on trade, is a good deal for Britain.
May and her team are running in fear of the business and particularly finance community. They're petrified of everyone upping sticks and leaving Britain in the financial mire, so they look like they're going to acquiesce in Brexit talks when pressed just to placate them and offer up some market certainty. It's an extraordinarily weak hand to be playing, and - credit to the EU - they appear to be standing together and calling them on it.
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Post by helsinkiyellow on Dec 4, 2017 12:29:27 GMT
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Post by flean on Dec 4, 2017 15:06:57 GMT
What a can of worms that will open eh.
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Post by tonyw on Dec 4, 2017 17:34:36 GMT
May has parked herself firmly between a rock and a hard place here.
The Ireland question looks nigh-on impossible to sort out, but unless they agree to some broad principles at least, the talks are never going to move on to the transition agreement and future trade. And the longer that takes, the more likely we are to get to March 2019 without a deal, and the more likely big companies are to get antsy and move their business to mainland Europe.
But if the solution they all come up with involves carving Northern Ireland out of the Union, then she's going to lose the DUP instantly. And then we may be looking at a no confidence vote in weeks, an election in months and then the still-slightly-terrifying prospect of Prime Minister Corbyn. Scotland, Wales & even London are also likely to think 'Hang on, if you can carve out Northern Ireland, can't you carve us out as well?'
Really hard to see this ending well, the way things are going.
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Post by flean on Dec 4, 2017 19:45:53 GMT
And now the DUP has seemingly scuppered any deal...
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Post by essexyellows on Dec 4, 2017 20:08:03 GMT
Its actually pleasing to see politicians earning their corn and being tested. Whilst many may describe TM`s position as "weak" shes doing a pretty fair job keeping everything moving and not crumbling to the many and varied views.
No hard border in Ireland with a "Irish Sea" border seems the logical outcome...
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Post by peterdev on Dec 4, 2017 20:09:23 GMT
I wouldn't gloat too much flean. Exit will stil,happen and there won't be a second referendum
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Post by flean on Dec 4, 2017 20:53:13 GMT
I wouldn't gloat too much flean. Exit will stil,happen and there won't be a second referendum Gloating? Ach Peter, you're a funny one. Of course Brexit will happen, I've not said it won't. The manner which it's happening is rather quite astonishing though isn't it? It's makes the thick of it seem boring. Is it happening in the way that you trusted vote leave with your vote?
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Post by peterdev on Dec 4, 2017 21:59:36 GMT
I never expected it to be easier as we have become firmly entrenched into the EU project of becoming a superstate. And yes you're right it hasn't happened the way I would have envisaged. I'm sure Juncker and co will be less than happy that we will be leaving despite all their efforts to stop us. They certainly don't like anyone who rocks the boat
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Post by tonyw on Dec 4, 2017 22:09:51 GMT
Its actually pleasing to see politicians earning their corn and being tested. Whilst many may describe TM`s position as "weak" shes doing a pretty fair job keeping everything moving and not crumbling to the many and varied views. No hard border in Ireland with a "Irish Sea" border seems the logical outcome... Logical, yes. But politically.....will probably lead us to another general election. No way that the DUP are going to keep their coalition going with the Tories if an Irish Sea border remains on the table.
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Post by flean on Dec 4, 2017 22:43:05 GMT
I never expected it to be easier as we have become firmly entrenched into the EU project of becoming a superstate. And yes you're right it hasn't happened the way I would have envisaged. I'm sure Juncker and co will be less than happy that we will be leaving despite all their efforts to stop us. They certainly don't like anyone who rocks the boat What efforts to stop the UK leaving? I really do think you've got a strange sense of how important you believe the UK is. The last 12 months should've seen to that, but you still keep going. Even the little neighbour Ireland has a bigger say in what will happen than the UK.
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Post by flean on Dec 5, 2017 17:05:36 GMT
David Davis announces the whole of the UK will have 'regulatory alignment' with the EU. Maybe I completely misinderstand this, but it's basically the same as staying in the single market... But without having any say on the regulations, and paying 50 billion quid for the trouble.
Absolute shambles.
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Post by peterdev on Dec 5, 2017 17:46:59 GMT
I really think you talk rubbish sometimes flean . Are you really suggesting the Irish Republic has more significance than the UK? Wasn't it they who voted against the Lisbon Treaty and were told by the EU to vote again because they didn't like the verdict? Juncker and his bullies might get away bullying its so called partners but not with us
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Post by plonker on Dec 5, 2017 17:57:26 GMT
David Davis announces the whole of the UK will have 'regulatory alignment' with the EU. Maybe I completely misinderstand this, but it's basically the same as staying in the single market... But without having any say on the regulations, and paying 50 billion quid for the trouble. Absolute shambles. Nah, you've misunderstood what he meant by "regulatory alignment" bud. I don't think it was anything close to resembling an announcement either, that makes it sound far more official than it was.
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Post by helsinkiyellow on Dec 5, 2017 20:39:27 GMT
“Alignment isn’t harmonisation. It isn’t having exactly the same rules. It is sometimes having mutually recognised rules, mutually recognised inspection – that is what we are aiming at.”
The words are English, but no matter how many times you read it, Davies is speaking utter gibberish. The government has collectively lost its mind.
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Post by ZeroTheHero on Dec 5, 2017 20:50:33 GMT
What happens if the DUP withdraw their support of the Tories if they decide to press ahead with 'EU border really in the middle of the Irish Sea' idea? Should the government collapse, what happens to whatever little progress has been made in the negotiations so far? If Labour got in (for example) would there be brand new negotiators who would presumably have to get up to speed bloody quickly?
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Post by peterdev on Dec 5, 2017 22:24:21 GMT
My feeling is that if DUP exited the coalition a vote of no confidence vote would follow. Theresa Mays government would collapse and negotiations would begin under Corbyn to try and form a new relationship with the EU, something like associate membership.
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Post by flean on Dec 5, 2017 23:54:23 GMT
I really think you talk rubbish sometimes flean . Are you really suggesting the Irish Republic has more significance than the UK? Wasn't it they who voted against the Lisbon Treaty and were told by the EU to vote again because they didn't like the verdict? Juncker and his bullies might get away bullying its so called partners but not with us They seem to be in the driving seat at the moment, Peter. As much as you might hate it, the UK are up shit Creek and need to get the Irish agreement before any talk of trade can happen. Sorry for you that the whole process hasn't been as easy as easy as you expected. A lot of us warned you though.
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Post by flean on Dec 6, 2017 0:26:54 GMT
David Davis announces the whole of the UK will have 'regulatory alignment' with the EU. Maybe I completely misinderstand this, but it's basically the same as staying in the single market... But without having any say on the regulations, and paying 50 billion quid for the trouble. Absolute shambles. Nah, you've misunderstood what he meant by "regulatory alignment" bud. I don't think it was anything close to resembling an announcement either, that makes it sound far more official than it was. Fair enough, it wasn't an officia announcement, it just came across like that in the news. But what is 'regulatory alignment' in your opinion then?
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Post by flean on Dec 6, 2017 12:35:27 GMT
Starting to wonder if David Davis wants to be sacked. I doubt May can sack him though as who else will take over that job?
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Post by peterdev on Dec 6, 2017 13:23:55 GMT
The Irish situation needs to be resolved and it will be. I hope it isn't a problem as the Europhiles will be very happy if they get their way....even though the electorate isnt
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Post by flean on Dec 6, 2017 14:05:15 GMT
The Irish situation needs to be resolved and it will be. I hope it isn't a problem as the Europhiles will be very happy if they get their way....even though the electorate isnt I think you need to start blaming the leave campaign for what they promised, and the government for their frankly unbelievable management from the start. Blaming Junker, the EU or remainers is simply painting over those massive cracks that I feel are starting to show in your belief in Brexit..
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Post by peterdev on Dec 6, 2017 21:57:37 GMT
I blame Theresa May to some extent for going on an ego trip and calling an unnecessary election when she already had a mandate to carry out what was asked for. Instead of which we are faced with an uncertain future, possibly with a Corbyn government that might seek a second referendum
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Post by flean on Dec 6, 2017 22:26:46 GMT
Corbyn isn't the biggest fan of the EU, but he's likely to listen to sense and look to stay in the single market / customs union. Brexit will definitely happen, don't worry about that.. It's just the manner in which it will come about. And the current govt with people claiming to have undertaken research and then saying they actually haven't, are making the UK a laughing stock.
Corbyn can't possibly be any worse tbh.
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Post by peterdev on Dec 7, 2017 8:36:58 GMT
Corbyn couldn't be much worse. We have had bad governments for years. First we had Blair the warmonger. Then Brown who sold our gold reserves off cheap. Then Cameron who throws his toys out the pram when he calls a referendum and gets the result he doesn't want. After that we get May, who instead of starting negotiations calls an election to strengthen her hand, and it does the opposite. With a Corbyn government in waiting I think many of us are dreading what might be coming next. We need a strong leader for this country and its many years since we had one
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Post by Yellow River on Dec 7, 2017 15:57:17 GMT
From the Telegraph.
The head of Germany's Social Democrats, Martin Schulz, a potential future governing partner of Chancellor Angela Merkel, called Thursday for the creation of a "United States of Europe" by 2025.
Schulz delivered a passionate plea for a more united and federal Europe at an SPD party congress that was due to decide whether his centre-left party will enter exploratory talks to form a new coalition government with Merkel.
"I want a European constitutional treaty that creates a federal Europe", said Schulz, the former European parliament president, proposing a written convention involving civil society and citizens.
The treaty would then be presented to all member states for ratification, with those that reject it automatically leaving the bloc, Schulz proposed in a speech at a Berlin meeting of some 600 delegates.
He suggested a target year of 2025, one century after the SPD first spoke of a future "United States of Europe".
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Post by Paul Cannell on Dec 7, 2017 16:03:50 GMT
Well, down with that sort of thing.
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Post by pooshooter on Dec 7, 2017 16:20:31 GMT
Corbyn couldn't be much worse. We have had bad governments for years. First we had Blair the warmonger. Then Brown who sold our gold reserves off cheap. Then Cameron who throws his toys out the pram when he calls a referendum and gets the result he doesn't want. After that we get May, who instead of starting negotiations calls an election to strengthen her hand, and it does the opposite. With a Corbyn government in waiting I think many of us are dreading what might be coming next. We need a strong leader for this country and its many years since we had one Corbyn is a true socialist who wants to have a full state control of everything. He'll promise to give things away to the youth in return for their vote and then radically change our economy. Who knows if it'll work but i remember the winter of discontent and do not want to go back to those dark days. Trouble is the current conservative government are paving the way for his election, and doesn't seem to be much anyone can do to stop it...
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