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Post by saddletramp on Nov 15, 2017 10:11:59 GMT
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Post by pooshooter on Nov 15, 2017 10:20:36 GMT
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Post by ag on Nov 15, 2017 10:30:42 GMT
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Post by flean on Nov 15, 2017 13:50:16 GMT
Hate to remind you ol'saddly, but the UK hasn't left the EU yet.
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Post by Gary Baldi on Nov 15, 2017 13:56:41 GMT
Was it 1 million jobs that Osbourne said would go overnight? I don't recall.
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Post by ian on Nov 15, 2017 14:01:04 GMT
Is this a joke or are you thick? The UK remains a member of the EU, Single Market and Customs Union until March 2019 - at least. Business and the economy will take years to adapt to the stupidity of Brexit, some will fail... For now, we have this: "With inflation at a five-and-a-half-year high of 3% in October, pay is failing to keep up with higher prices." So already most of us are financially worse off, & our standard if living is declining - in anticipation of Brexit occuring...
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Post by foley on Nov 15, 2017 14:16:36 GMT
Is this a joke or are you thick? The UK remains a member of the EU, Single Market and Customs Union until March 2019 - at least. Business and the economy will take years to adapt to the stupidity of Brexit, some will fail... For now, we have this: "With inflation at a five-and-a-half-year high of 3% in October, pay is failing to keep up with higher prices." So already most of us are financially worse off, & our standard if living is declining - in anticipation of Brexit occuring... Where to begin... Whichever way you look at it, Unemployment is incredibly low in the UK and averages circa 7.8% in Europe. That surely is a good thing and is in total contrast to what a lot of those wanting us to remain in the EU told us would happen? Do you disagree with any of that? Inflation is at historical low levels still and the Bank of England believe that this will be coming down again shortly towards the 2% target. With regard to Brexit, I am just a little surprised that so many people reckon that they can predict the economic future (top economists struggle to). My suspicion is that some businesses will fail. The UK will in all likelihood lose jobs in the Car Industry and the Banking Industry in London especially (and other industries may suffer). The flip side? The EU doesn't allow the UK (or any other EU Country) to have trade deals with any country except the EU trade deals. So the government would be negligent in the extreme if they don't agree trade deals with other countries that should make it easier to trade with those other countries. So the $50000 question is where the economy will be overall in 5/ 10 years time.
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Post by foley on Nov 15, 2017 14:19:04 GMT
Is this a joke or are you thick? The UK remains a member of the EU, Single Market and Customs Union until March 2019 - at least. Business and the economy will take years to adapt to the stupidity of Brexit, some will fail... For now, we have this: "With inflation at a five-and-a-half-year high of 3% in October, pay is failing to keep up with higher prices." So already most of us are financially worse off, & our standard if living is declining - in anticipation of Brexit occuring... Not sure that suggesting other forum members as 'thick' is particularly good? From reading Saddletramp's postings he doesn't appear to me to be thick- he may have a different opinion to you?
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Post by Yellow River on Nov 15, 2017 14:26:33 GMT
Seems to me (certainly on the BBC & Channel 4 News) that all economic/business 'bad news' is the result of Brexit and all 'good news' is despite Brexit.
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Post by flean on Nov 15, 2017 15:25:04 GMT
Was it 1 million jobs that Osbourne said would go overnight? I don't recall. Don't remember that one.. Do remember the 350m a week they have to find from somewhere though
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Post by flean on Nov 15, 2017 15:38:42 GMT
Is this a joke or are you thick? The UK remains a member of the EU, Single Market and Customs Union until March 2019 - at least. Business and the economy will take years to adapt to the stupidity of Brexit, some will fail... For now, we have this: "With inflation at a five-and-a-half-year high of 3% in October, pay is failing to keep up with higher prices." So already most of us are financially worse off, & our standard if living is declining - in anticipation of Brexit occuring... Where to begin... Whichever way you look at it, Unemployment is incredibly low in the UK and averages circa 7.8% in Europe. That surely is a good thing and is in total contrast to what a lot of those wanting us to remain in the EU told us would happen? Do you disagree with any of that? Inflation is at historical low levels still and the Bank of England believe that this will be coming down again shortly towards the 2% target. With regard to Brexit, I am just a little surprised that so many people reckon that they can predict the economic future (top economists struggle to). My suspicion is that some businesses will fail. The UK will in all likelihood lose jobs in the Car Industry and the Banking Industry in London especially (and other industries may suffer). The flip side? The EU doesn't allow the UK (or any other EU Country) to have trade deals with any country except the EU trade deals. So the government would be negligent in the extreme if they don't agree trade deals with other countries that should make it easier to trade with those other countries. So the $50000 question is where the economy will be overall in 5/ 10 years time. Bingo. The UK will lose jobs in the financial and car industries. I think that's maybe something we can all agree on. Now, what else does the UK produce that is in massive demand all around the world? Cheddar cheese? Marmite?
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Post by KLYellow on Nov 15, 2017 17:16:39 GMT
I just read it and it says 32 million EMPLOYED.... Sent from my XIAOMI NOTE PRO using telepathy
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Post by Pete Burrett on Nov 15, 2017 17:18:59 GMT
I just read it and it says 32 million EMPLOYED.... Sent from my XIAOMI NOTE PRO using telepathy So it does! Little details can be important ....
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Post by tonyw on Nov 15, 2017 17:42:02 GMT
Where to begin... Whichever way you look at it, Unemployment is incredibly low in the UK and averages circa 7.8% in Europe. That surely is a good thing and is in total contrast to what a lot of those wanting us to remain in the EU told us would happen? Do you disagree with any of that? Inflation is at historical low levels still and the Bank of England believe that this will be coming down again shortly towards the 2% target. With regard to Brexit, I am just a little surprised that so many people reckon that they can predict the economic future (top economists struggle to). My suspicion is that some businesses will fail. The UK will in all likelihood lose jobs in the Car Industry and the Banking Industry in London especially (and other industries may suffer). The flip side? The EU doesn't allow the UK (or any other EU Country) to have trade deals with any country except the EU trade deals. So the government would be negligent in the extreme if they don't agree trade deals with other countries that should make it easier to trade with those other countries. So the $50000 question is where the economy will be overall in 5/ 10 years time.Call me a pessimist, but I find it almost impossible to believe that we'll have any trade deals in place with significant global economies (e.g. India, China, US) within five years. The average negotiation period for such a deal seems to hover around seven years, and I've seen nothing in the Brexit negotiations thus far that leads me to believe that the current UK government has the competence and capability to work through something of the complexity of an international free trade deal faster than average. And of course we can't start until we've actually left the EU. You're absolutely right that the long term outlook is impossibly difficult to predict. It depends on the future actions of a large number of individuals in business and government and, depending on their decisions, just about anything is possible from Britain becoming a European Singapore to complete economic collapse. Hard to imagine a short term outlook in which a hard Brexit doesn't cause some pain however. The job losses you mention are one likely consequence. If we adopt WTO tariffs, inflation is bound to spike as well, way above 3%. With competent leadership, there's a successful course that can still be charted for Britain. But I've seen frighteningly little of that for the past 12 months (and for what it's worth, I can't see Corbyn and his crew providing it either). Troubling.
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Post by bashamwonderland on Nov 15, 2017 18:48:35 GMT
There is nothing worse for the economy than uncertainty.
Naturally, uncertainty surrounding Brexit is probably close to its 10 year peak.
Nobody can predict what will happen but in my mind, we are at the most uncertain point of the process. As we regain certainty following an initial financial dip following the point of exit, I think we will strengthen quickly (that is if the evil-but-good-when-they-fiddle-the-system-to-get-what-you-want MPs allow Brexit to happen) when we gain independence.
If our economy is this stable when we don't know what will happen in the next few years, then I don't think it will worsen significantly upon leaving.
The USA signed one of its most recent free-trade agreements with South Korea in 2007 after 14 months of negotiations. They signed one in 2004 with Australia after 1 year of negotiation. The ASEAN - China free trade framework was created following 2 years of negotiation. Not 5 years. Not 10 years.
Why do people think it will take us so long to do deals? What information are you privy to that the rest of us are missing out on?
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Post by tonyw on Nov 15, 2017 20:47:48 GMT
The USA signed one of its most recent free-trade agreements with South Korea in 2007 after 14 months of negotiations. They signed one in 2004 with Australia after 1 year of negotiation. The ASEAN - China free trade framework was created following 2 years of negotiation. Not 5 years. Not 10 years. Why do people think it will take us so long to do deals? What information are you privy to that the rest of us are missing out on? Well how about: The South Korea - US free trade agreement didn't actually come into effect until March 2012. They may have had a piece of paper signed in 2007, but they then went through another five years of negotiations and revisions before they had an agreement that could be ratified by both sides. In total it was a little over six years between negotiations starting and the treaty becoming functional. (and of course Trump is now threatening to terminate this 'horrible deal') The ASEAN - China free trade framework was even worse. They may have had a framework in 2002 after two years - but all that provided was the legal basis to begin formal discussions on the weightier issues. The Agreement on Trade in Goods wasn't signed until 2004 (and then needed to be amended in 2006 and 2010), the Agreement on Trade in Services wasn't signed until 2007 and the whole ASEAN - China free trade area didn't come into being until 1 January 2010. In other words it took them a decade to get from the start of negotiations to tariff-free trade (and even then, that was only with a subset of the bloc). Australia - USA? Yep, that one was quicker (although in reality it's a preferential and not a free trade agreement) and actually I think we'd have a good shot at getting something in place with the Aussies on a much faster than average timescale. Cultural similarities and all that. But, while welcome, free trade with a country of 20 million on the other side of the world is hardly going to replace free trade with the EU. Oh that these deals could just be "Let's eliminate tariffs, yeah?" simple, but they never are. There needs to be legal alignment. There needs to be regulatory agreement. And then there's the million and one special interest groups that crowbar themselves into the conversation. It's naive and/or delusional to believe that a fair and comprehensive trade agreement with a major world economy can be done swiftly, when the evidence so clearly points to the fact that they never are.
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Post by diagocostapacket on Nov 15, 2017 21:22:09 GMT
Where will we be in 10 years time ??
No real change I suspect apart from descriptively.. 10 years of posturing and rhetoric with no net affect.
As you were.
Our efforts should be expended now reassuring the European, Asian and far Eastern investors to safeguard future investment in Britain.
If the big guns pull out and re-direct their investment in more partisan countries we will be in really big trouble.
Personally I think the vote to leave the EU will be proven by history to be the biggest mistake made by our nation since Henry Tandey failed to shoot Adolf Hitler.
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Post by Gary Baldi on Nov 15, 2017 21:22:36 GMT
Was it 1 million jobs that Osbourne said would go overnight? I don't recall. Don't remember that one.. Do remember the 350m a week they have to find from somewhere though 350 million Gross. Not net
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Post by bashamwonderland on Nov 15, 2017 23:36:44 GMT
The USA signed one of its most recent free-trade agreements with South Korea in 2007 after 14 months of negotiations. They signed one in 2004 with Australia after 1 year of negotiation. The ASEAN - China free trade framework was created following 2 years of negotiation. Not 5 years. Not 10 years. Why do people think it will take us so long to do deals? What information are you privy to that the rest of us are missing out on? Well how about: The South Korea - US free trade agreement didn't actually come into effect until March 2012. They may have had a piece of paper signed in 2007, but they then went through another five years of negotiations and revisions before they had an agreement that could be ratified by both sides. In total it was a little over six years between negotiations starting and the treaty becoming functional. (and of course Trump is now threatening to terminate this 'horrible deal') The ASEAN - China free trade framework was even worse. They may have had a framework in 2002 after two years - but all that provided was the legal basis to begin formal discussions on the weightier issues. The Agreement on Trade in Goods wasn't signed until 2004 (and then needed to be amended in 2006 and 2010), the Agreement on Trade in Services wasn't signed until 2007 and the whole ASEAN - China free trade area didn't come into being until 1 January 2010. In other words it took them a decade to get from the start of negotiations to tariff-free trade (and even then, that was only with a subset of the bloc). Australia - USA? Yep, that one was quicker (although in reality it's a preferential and not a free trade agreement) and actually I think we'd have a good shot at getting something in place with the Aussies on a much faster than average timescale. Cultural similarities and all that. But, while welcome, free trade with a country of 20 million on the other side of the world is hardly going to replace free trade with the EU. Oh that these deals could just be "Let's eliminate tariffs, yeah?" simple, but they never are. There needs to be legal alignment. There needs to be regulatory agreement. And then there's the million and one special interest groups that crowbar themselves into the conversation. It's naive and/or delusional to believe that a fair and comprehensive trade agreement with a major world economy can be done swiftly, when the evidence so clearly points to the fact that they never are. The delays in the SK-USA deal arose out of an unfavourable Democrat congress, as Wikipedia has probably also reliably informed you. The point remains that in principle the SK-USA deal was negotiated and signed in 2 years. If your point about ASEAN is correct, then the agreement was signed within 2 years and implemented in another 2. Also, that's an economic bloc / single nation deal, not a simple nation / nation trade deal. Much like our current dealing with the EU. Is 4 years too long? I don't think so in the grand scheme of things. Re your comment in bold - You've attached a really strong opinion there to an unbelievably vague statement. 'Swiftly'. What does that mean? I assume you've never negotiated an international free-trade agreement so who exactly are you to label anyone delusional for believing we can get deals done in 2-5 years with major economies? It's naive and/or delusional to believe that a fair and comprehensive trade agreement with a major world economy cannot be done swiftly. See, I can do it too. Vacuous statement.
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Post by ian on Nov 16, 2017 0:18:08 GMT
There is nothing worse for the economy than uncertainty. Naturally, uncertainty surrounding Brexit is probably close to its 10 year peak. Nobody can predict what will happen but in my mind, we are at the most uncertain point of the process. As we regain certainty following an initial financial dip following the point of exit, I think we will strengthen quickly (that is if the evil-but-good-when-they-fiddle-the-system-to-get-what-you-want MPs allow Brexit to happen) when we gain independence. If our economy is this stable when we don't know what will happen in the next few years, then I don't think it will worsen significantly upon leaving. The USA signed one of its most recent free-trade agreements with South Korea in 2007 after 14 months of negotiations. They signed one in 2004 with Australia after 1 year of negotiation. The ASEAN - China free trade framework was created following 2 years of negotiation. Not 5 years. Not 10 years. Why do people think it will take us so long to do deals? What information are you privy to that the rest of us are missing out on? Because the people who have experienced negotiating trade deals have said it usually takes 7+ years to negotiate a trade deal. Further, the UK will be negotiating from a position of weakness, being the only country to rely solely on WTO rules. Other countries just might want deals that favour them...
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Post by foley on Nov 16, 2017 12:29:01 GMT
There is nothing worse for the economy than uncertainty. Naturally, uncertainty surrounding Brexit is probably close to its 10 year peak. Nobody can predict what will happen but in my mind, we are at the most uncertain point of the process. As we regain certainty following an initial financial dip following the point of exit, I think we will strengthen quickly (that is if the evil-but-good-when-they-fiddle-the-system-to-get-what-you-want MPs allow Brexit to happen) when we gain independence. If our economy is this stable when we don't know what will happen in the next few years, then I don't think it will worsen significantly upon leaving. The USA signed one of its most recent free-trade agreements with South Korea in 2007 after 14 months of negotiations. They signed one in 2004 with Australia after 1 year of negotiation. The ASEAN - China free trade framework was created following 2 years of negotiation. Not 5 years. Not 10 years. Why do people think it will take us so long to do deals? What information are you privy to that the rest of us are missing out on? Because the people who have experienced negotiating trade deals have said it usually takes 7+ years to negotiate a trade deal. Further, the UK will be negotiating from a position of weakness, being the only country to rely solely on WTO rules. Other countries just might want deals that favour them... I just don't buy this years and years to get a trade deal. I am by nature optimistic and tend to think that if there is a will .... With most Countries there is a template of deals with other Countries. I just can't see why the closest template to the one both countries be used and then tweaked? Even the EU has different trade deals with different countries. Presumably with regard to these then much of the work has been completed. It is easy throwing out the comments that trade deals need to take 5-10 years, but why??
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Post by foley on Nov 16, 2017 12:36:43 GMT
So the $50000 question is where the economy will be overall in 5/ 10 years time.Call me a pessimist, but I find it almost impossible to believe that we'll have any trade deals in place with significant global economies (e.g. India, China, US) within five years. The average negotiation period for such a deal seems to hover around seven years, and I've seen nothing in the Brexit negotiations thus far that leads me to believe that the current UK government has the competence and capability to work through something of the complexity of an international free trade deal faster than average. And of course we can't start until we've actually left the EU. You're absolutely right that the long term outlook is impossibly difficult to predict. It depends on the future actions of a large number of individuals in business and government and, depending on their decisions, just about anything is possible from Britain becoming a European Singapore to complete economic collapse. Hard to imagine a short term outlook in which a hard Brexit doesn't cause some pain however. The job losses you mention are one likely consequence. If we adopt WTO tariffs, inflation is bound to spike as well, way above 3%. With competent leadership, there's a successful course that can still be charted for Britain. But I've seen frighteningly little of that for the past 12 months (and for what it's worth, I can't see Corbyn and his crew providing it either). Troubling. I am more optimistic than you Tony and when things are hyped up to be disastrous, they rarely seem to turn out to be that bad.... (Cameron/ Osborn's comments re the immediate impact of us leaving the EU is a classic) I honestly think that trade deals could be completed in far less than 7 years. In addition the work can begin now even if we can't sign anything until we leave the EU. I personally reckon that if the government is not planning for brexit including trade deals, aircraft being able to take off the day after we leave, Dover queues being managed, then they are incompetent. I know that even a year ago the DTI were doing an awful lot to encourage additional exports/ business in the Industry I was in at the time and a lot was going on behind the scenes. I do agree with you overall though that competent leadership is a real issue in getting anything like a smooth transition.
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Post by HeyMcAleny on Nov 16, 2017 12:58:36 GMT
If our economy is this stable when we don't know what will happen in the next few years, then I don't think it will worsen significantly upon leaving. There are so many variables that businesses (and consumers) simply don't know what to think about Brexit. When you haven't a clue what's going to happen, you do little substantial about it. On this basis it should be no surprise really that not much has changed yet. However, you cannot extrapolate from that and say "an unknown set of future events have not yet happened and little has changed, therefore when these events occur not much will change either". Your argument stems from the ridiculous dire predictions that were made about the immediate consequences of a leave vote. Such stupidity has left the Remain camp with the tag of "cry wolf". Any warnings given now are met with derision and disbelief by much of the electorate. We simply don't know what the future holds for us as a nation with regard to Brexit. Economically and politically it's a gamble which will pay off for some and not for others.
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Post by Gary Baldi on Nov 16, 2017 13:31:16 GMT
The problem is the whole doubling down on doom - a similar thing is happening in the US with Trump. Because everything is supposedly so shit all the time, the camps divide even further and stop talking. The future is going to be hard and tricky for the UK post Brexit, but this doesn't mean it to be all negative, all the time.
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Post by Pete Burrett on Nov 16, 2017 16:17:15 GMT
Such stupidity has left the Remain camp with the tag of "cry wolf". Any warnings given now are met with derision and disbelief by much of the electorate. Yep. I used to cringe during the pre-vote Brexit debate as both sides made ridiculous, unquantifiable statements. 'Project Fear' was played out by both sides. Equally, there were some banal comments on here following the vote to leave. Two days after the vote the FTSE 100 rose and certain people were lauding this as proof that leaving would have no detrimental effect. Others pointed at comments by some manufacturers that they 'may' relocate to mainland Europe as proof that disaster was looming. The truth is, no-one has any idea what effect Brexit will have on our economy, how long it will take to set up new deals or how much of our existing relationship with the EU will be retained. The thing that concerns me is whether our government is clued up enough to deal with leaving effectively and whether we can initiate new trade deals before exporters suffer too much.
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Post by Gary Baldi on Nov 16, 2017 17:33:27 GMT
Such stupidity has left the Remain camp with the tag of "cry wolf". Any warnings given now are met with derision and disbelief by much of the electorate. Yep. I used to cringe during the pre-vote Brexit debate as both sides made ridiculous, unquantifiable statements. 'Project Fear' was played out by both sides. Equally, there were some banal comments on here following the vote to leave. Two days after the vote the FTSE 100 rose and certain people were lauding this as proof that leaving would have no detrimental effect. Others pointed at comments by some manufacturers that they 'may' relocate to mainland Europe as proof that disaster was looming. The truth is, no-one has any idea what effect Brexit will have on our economy, how long it will take to set up new deals or how much of our existing relationship with the EU will be retained. The thing that concerns me is whether our government is clued up enough to deal with leaving effectively and whether we can initiate new trade deals before exporters suffer too much. The problem is the banal comments were based on some banal threats from the Remain side about the "knife edge" the economy was on if we voted out (something anyone with a critical mind could see was highly unlikely to happen). AKA Project Fear. It was all utterly unedifying piffle where I don't think anyone can remember who said what first, and no one should look fondly on the contents of that campaign.
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Post by Pete Burrett on Nov 16, 2017 17:38:13 GMT
Yep. I used to cringe during the pre-vote Brexit debate as both sides made ridiculous, unquantifiable statements. 'Project Fear' was played out by both sides. Equally, there were some banal comments on here following the vote to leave. Two days after the vote the FTSE 100 rose and certain people were lauding this as proof that leaving would have no detrimental effect. Others pointed at comments by some manufacturers that they 'may' relocate to mainland Europe as proof that disaster was looming. The truth is, no-one has any idea what effect Brexit will have on our economy, how long it will take to set up new deals or how much of our existing relationship with the EU will be retained. The thing that concerns me is whether our government is clued up enough to deal with leaving effectively and whether we can initiate new trade deals before exporters suffer too much. The problem is the banal comments were based on some banal threats from the Remain side about the "knife edge" the economy was on if we voted out (something anyone with a critical mind could see was highly unlikely to happen). AKA Project Fear. It was all utterly unedifying piffle where I don't think anyone can remember who said what first, and no one should look fondly on the contents of that campaign. I was being deliberately even-handed. The banal comments I used as examples were from both sides. Banality was most certainly not exclusive to one side or the other. And the banality continues. This whole thread is an example of 'so what?' posting. (And, as it happens, inaccurate. The article does not refer to 32 million unemployed, as KL Yellow spotted).
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Post by KLYellow on Nov 16, 2017 17:49:20 GMT
I wouldn't say nothing has happened yet. The pound has significantly dropped. This has had a lot of knock on effects some which are not positive.
Someone said a good analogy the other day. We are like a premiership team sitting at the bottom of the table. Destined for relegation until something drastic happens.
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Post by grenobleroad on Nov 16, 2017 18:01:35 GMT
I wouldn't say nothing has happened yet. The pound has significantly dropped. This has had a lot of knock on effects some which are not positive. Someone said a good analogy the other day. We are like a premiership team sitting at the bottom of the table. Destined for relegation until something drastic happens. You mean we are waiting for Big Sam to lead us to safety?
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Post by tonyw on Nov 16, 2017 18:05:55 GMT
The delays in the SK-USA deal arose out of an unfavourable Democrat congress, as Wikipedia has probably also reliably informed you. The point remains that in principle the SK-USA deal was negotiated and signed in 2 years. If your point about ASEAN is correct, then the agreement was signed within 2 years and implemented in another 2. Also, that's an economic bloc / single nation deal, not a simple nation / nation trade deal. Much like our current dealing with the EU. Is 4 years too long? I don't think so in the grand scheme of things. Re your comment in bold - You've attached a really strong opinion there to an unbelievably vague statement. 'Swiftly'. What does that mean? I assume you've never negotiated an international free-trade agreement so who exactly are you to label anyone delusional for believing we can get deals done in 2-5 years with major economies? It's naive and/or delusional to believe that a fair and comprehensive trade agreement with a major world economy cannot be done swiftly. See, I can do it too. Vacuous statement. Difference is, my vacuous statement has a great deal of precedent behind it. Yours does not. For the UK to get a trade deal that is actually in effect within 5 years with another global Top 10 economy, they are going to have to substantially outperform the international norm for such agreements. That's demonstrable fact if you look at the data for the significant free trade deals that are in place across the planet. (and let's be honest, being in effect is the only relevant variable here - of course you could lock two teams of technocrats in a room, and they could drum up a deal within months. Doesn't mean a damn thing if the politicians won't pass it and you have to go back to the negotiating table again and again [see South Korea - US trade deal], or if it's never put into effect by the people who actually wield power) If they're going to achieve that, the UK government going to have to be creative, pragmatic, flexible and have strong and visionary leadership. I don't believe the current UK government or the shadow UK government are capable of that (the Brexit negotiations would appear to be proceeding exactly as I feared they would - in other words posturing on both sides rather than progress). And I believe anyone pinning their hopes on that changing, and Britain emerging from Brexit to have bilateral free trade with China, Japan, India and the US filling the economic gap within five years is daydreaming. But maybe Foley's right. Maybe I'm just a pessimist. I hope I am.
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