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Post by charliesghost on Jan 26, 2011 10:58:23 GMT
To my mind, relegation is now out of the question, barring a points deduction. We're circa 15 clear of the bottom 2, with 20 games left. Even ten points from the remaining 20 games would put us on 48 points - which would be enough.
So, it was amazing to hear people around me last night sdaying that they'd be "take a mid-table finish". Why? Realistically, our options are either a mid-to-lower table finish or an upper-mid-table finish (maybe in the play-offs).
With the pressure now totally off, we can go for the latter with conviction, which seems to be what the players are now doing.
What are we going to need to make the play-offs? Well, barring one freak year when the top seven pulled right away from the rest of the league, over the last five years you've needed about 72 points to get to 7th place.
With us currently on 38 points, that means 34 points from 20 games.
9 wins, seven draws and four losses? 10 wins, four draws and six losses. Or 11 wins, a draw and 8 losses.
Whichever way round you look at it, broadly we're talking about winning roughly half our games to hit 7th place. What an opportunity that is.
My one fear, though, as elucidated elsewhere, is that our set piece weakness - defensive and attacking - means that our victories are hard won. We more or less HAVE to out-play the opposition. Big games coming up against, in Southend and Gillingham, big, physical teams who put the squeeze on us at our place. If we come out of those two games with 3 or 4 points, I'll start to ensure that I've got some free dates in my diary in May!!
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Post by banzai on Jan 26, 2011 11:12:40 GMT
Completely agree we should be aiming for the play-offs with one eye looking even higher. No pressure just go out and keep playing tidy football and see where it takes us.
But I'm still not convinced 433 will get the best out of the squad or should i say get us enough points to make 7th. But having seen how we played using a 442 for a large part of the 2nd half last night I am convinced we could at least make the playoffs using that formation.
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Post by Mark on Jan 26, 2011 11:38:40 GMT
I'm not sure who can deliver those set pieces and corners. This has been missing since the days of Adam Murray and his Hollywood balls. Chapman is only six months into his 30 month sentence, so not due out anytime soon. Josh Payne possibly?
As for the absence of a big lump like Mark Creighton, I think this now gives the team the task of having to score more goals than they concede, with the likelihood we will concede most games.
As someone who likes a small bet on the match, the three goals in a game is starting to look underpriced at evens, and the behind at half-time and winning at full time at around 40/1 also looks good value.
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Post by scoob on Jan 26, 2011 11:40:30 GMT
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Post by Long John Silver on Jan 26, 2011 13:08:31 GMT
I'm not sure who can deliver those set pieces and corners. This has been missing since the days of Adam Murray and his Hollywood balls. Chapman is only six months into his 30 month sentence, so not due out anytime soon. Josh Payne possibly? Murray!! His delivery from corners and free-kicks was woeful most of the time. Those horrible floated balls in that were so easy to defend (a bit like Heslop's when he actaually manages to beat the first man). McLaren's corners are very good, much better than anyone we have had for a few years now. The problem is that we have absolutely no one who can muscle past defenders or make the required effort to get their head to the ball.
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Post by socrates on Jan 26, 2011 14:00:44 GMT
I thought we were superb last night in terms of passing and movement
We can't defend set pieces or corners, though
In the 1st half I counted the number of 50-50 headers won in our defensive third. Oxford 4 Shrewsbury 5
Two of those headers won by Oxford resulted in shots on goal by the Shrews.
There is much work to do
But if CW and the coaching staff do not rest on their laurels - surely they must recognise the problem? - and work hard, we should make the top seven
oh, and we need to keep maclean and mclaren fit. that's a biggy
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Post by longliveclarkey on Jan 26, 2011 15:51:36 GMT
I'm not sure who can deliver those set pieces and corners. This has been missing since the days of Adam Murray and his Hollywood balls. Chapman is only six months into his 30 month sentence, so not due out anytime soon. Josh Payne possibly? Murray!! His delivery from corners and free-kicks was woeful most of the time. Those horrible floated balls in that were so easy to defend (a bit like Heslop's when he actaually manages to beat the first man). McLaren's corners are very good, much better than anyone we have had for a few years now. The problem is that we have absolutely no one who can muscle past defenders or make the required effort to get their head to the ball. Exactly right. Maclaren's delivery from corners (I haven't noticed his free kicks, does he actually take them?) is excellent, our problem is we only have one really notable header of the ball in attack, that being Craddock, who is one of our least touch and muscley players. I'm sure Hall has the potential to be a decent attacking header of the ball too, and Heslop. Attacking set pieces aren't really causing us much of a problem right now though
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Post by Mark on Jan 26, 2011 16:10:16 GMT
If only Jack Midson was a bit taller he is 5'8" according to official site!
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Post by charliesghost on Jan 26, 2011 16:30:22 GMT
If only Jack Midson was a bit taller he is 5'8" according to official site! Can't possibly agree with consensus that McLaren's dead ball delivery is great. It's a bit more professional than Heslop's, in that it beats the first man, but it's still floated and generally lands around the penalty spot. Whereas the opposition's dead ball is generally mullered into the near post at pace with two meatheads pressurising Clarke.
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Post by longliveclarkey on Jan 26, 2011 17:47:41 GMT
If only Jack Midson was a bit taller he is 5'8" according to official site! Can't possibly agree with consensus that McLaren's dead ball delivery is great. It's a bit more professional than Heslop's, in that it beats the first man, but it's still floated and generally lands around the penalty spot. Whereas the opposition's dead ball is generally mullered into the near post at pace with two meatheads pressurising Clarke. It's a fair point, I was probably exaggerating because we haven't seen a good dead-ball specialist in a good while. However, his accuracy is very good, and his delivery doesn't often get caught by the keeper. That's definitely a good delivery, we scored plenty of goals from Kinniburgh's crosses last season with deliveries like that (something he seems to have lost for some reason a little this season). I don't think, therefore it's a pressing issue, but there are players who seem really able to whip in crosses/set pieces against us, and that might be something we need to work on as we progress up the leagues.
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Post by Best Mate on Jan 26, 2011 22:06:54 GMT
I agree with Wilders comments in the Mail. Its about wins. As Charlie commented - 11 wins and 8 defeats - sounds quite a reasonable ask to me if we want to finish in the top 7.
Thing is - from now on, its having the ability to take confidences from wins in to the following games and also being able to put defeats (which we will have) behind us and to go again in the next game. (Just like happened this week).
I still think we will rely on a couple of squad playersto come good at one stage. With injuries and suspensions - there will be games when I think we will need a Midson, Green, Potter, Deering to make impacts and win us games.
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Post by Best Mate on Jan 26, 2011 22:42:40 GMT
Just had a look at the odds for the division.
Can get the following (best prices):
50/1 to win the league (Bet365, blue Square, 888) 6/1 to get promoted (auto or play offs) - Blue Square or 888 12/1 for automatic promotion (extra bet) 9/4 to make the play offs (VC bet) - promotion not required.... 100/1 to be relegated (Blue Square) 25/1 Beano to be top scorer (bet 365/ Coral)
Quite like the 9/4 - a tad skinny, but think we can make it....
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Post by paulayres on Jan 27, 2011 7:50:19 GMT
Why limit our aim at a top 7 finish. Lets aim for top 3, we can finish in the automatic positions.
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Post by charliesghost on Jan 27, 2011 13:38:53 GMT
Just had a look at the odds for the division. Can get the following (best prices): 50/1 to win the league (Bet365, blue Square, 888) 6/1 to get promoted (auto or play offs) - Blue Square or 888 12/1 for automatic promotion (extra bet) 9/4 to make the play offs (VC bet) - promotion not required.... 100/1 to be relegated (Blue Square) 25/1 Beano to be top scorer (bet 365/ Coral) Quite like the 9/4 - a tad skinny, but think we can make it.... I think that the 9/4 is an excellent price (or a generous one, I should say). By my reckoning, we have a 1 in 2 chance of making the play-offs (evens). If we get beaten on Saturday, I may then make us 6/4 or so, but still and all to have 9/4 about us staying in the same position as we're currently in, when we have a better side than we had for the first half of the season is one to take.
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