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Post by mooro on Jan 22, 2014 17:37:28 GMT
I've just put together a prediction spreadsheet for how the table will look at the end of the season. I've not an*lysed every fixture individually, as that can be a little too subjective, so I have stuck to a strict formula (Three groups of teams A = top12 B = york, AFCW, Exeter, Hartlepool, mansfield & Portsmouth, C = rest // All games btwn group A sides are a draw, All home games for group A sides are home wins, A away to B is a draw, away to C is a win).
Using this leaves 1) Scun 84pts, 2) Southend 83, 3) Fleetwood 83, 4) Rochdale 82 5) Burton 82 6) Oxford 81 7) Chesterfield 79, with Plymouth and Newport back on 74 Interestingly, we would actually go top in mid February as our next six games are all against teams from the lower half, but then we have 10 out of 11 games against top half sides!
Just as an experiment I reversed the scoring for us between home and away, which at the moment is probably more accurate, which would leave us just scraping into the playoffs by one point.
I will perhaps tinker a bit more with the groupings and points, and keep things updated as games are played, but what this really highlights is the importance of this next run of fixtures against the lower half sides - drop too many points here and we will have to be making up ground by beating the better sides, which is not ideal!!
NEXT: Torquay H, Exeter a, Wimbledon h, bury a, Bristol a, Mansfield h
BUT THEN: Newport a, Morecambe a, Rochdale a, Burton h, Cheltenham h, Chesterfield a, Hartlepool h, Southend a, Daggers a, Fleetwood h, Plymouth a, York h, Scunthorpe a
BEFORE finishing with : Accrington h & Noton a
Edit: by changing the pts for a draw between Group A sides to 2pts for the home side & 1 to the away (ie. on the assumption that the home side will probably win 1/draw 1), then the rankings come out the same except that Rochdale and Southend swap places, although it all remains very tight.
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Post by pooshooter on Jan 22, 2014 17:41:16 GMT
you have time on your hands
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Post by saddletramp on Jan 22, 2014 17:49:24 GMT
I've just put together a prediction spreadsheet for how the table will look at the end of the season. I've not an*lysed every fixture individually, as that can be a little too subjective, so I have stuck to a strict formula (Three groups of teams A = top12 B = york, AFCW, Exeter, Hartlepool, mansfield & Portsmouth, C = rest // All games btwn group A sides are a draw, All home games for group A sides are home wins, A away to B is a draw, away to C is a win). Using this leaves 1) Scun 84pts, 2) Southend 83, 3) Fleetwood 83, 4) Rochdale 82 5) Burton 82 6) Oxford 81 7) Chesterfield 79, with Plymouth and Newport back on 74 Interestingly, we would actually go top in mid February as our next six games are all against teams from the lower half, but then we have 10 out of 11 games against top half sides! Just as an experiment I reversed the scoring for us between home and away, which at the moment is probably more accurate, which would leave us just scraping into the playoffs by one point. I will perhaps tinker a bit more with the groupings and points, and keep things updated as games are played, but what this really highlights is the importance of this next run of fixtures against the lower half sides - drop too many points here and we will have to be making up ground by beating the better sides, which is not ideal!! NEXT: Torquay H, Exeter a, Wimbledon h, bury a, Bristol a, Mansfield h BUT THEN: Newport a, Morecambe a, Rochdale a, Burton h, Cheltenham h, Chesterfield a, Hartlepool h, Southend a, Daggers a, Fleetwood h, Plymouth a, York h, Scunthorpe a BEFORE finishing with : Accrington h & Noton a Do you make a fortune on the football coupon every week?
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Post by socrates on Jan 22, 2014 19:16:04 GMT
Think that's fair. I would expect us to squeeze into the play-offs. That would be a good season in my eyes
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Post by bicesteryellow on Jan 22, 2014 19:22:30 GMT
I do like a good playoff
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Post by kassamatemyhamster on Jan 23, 2014 13:39:32 GMT
This is an interesting system, Mooro and I think it probably looks about right - on paper. My fear is, as you point out, we don't do so well against the teams in the other groups and, given our current form, I'd suggest we will indeed drop emough points to keep us out of the play-offs, yet again!
It's also interesting to see that some on here are prepared to settle for the play-offs - especially when we were in the top three for all but 5 weeks of the first half of the season.
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Post by londonroader on Jan 23, 2014 20:29:29 GMT
14th
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Post by ZeroTheHero on Jan 23, 2014 20:30:59 GMT
Unless something changes pretty radically - 8th
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Post by billyox on Jan 23, 2014 20:47:26 GMT
These predictions things I find a complete waste of time no matter how hard you try your always end up with us in the play offs or in the top 3 it's only natural to make the team you support have better results
Sent from my SM-N9005 using proboards
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Post by mooro on Jan 23, 2014 22:07:54 GMT
These predictions things I find a complete waste of time no matter how hard you try your always end up with us in the play offs or in the top 3 it's only natural to make the team you support have better results Sent from my SM-N9005 using proboards that is why I used the same points allocation for each team, rather than game by game. I dont expect to get them all right, but it just acts as a base from which better and worse performing sides can be viewed.
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Post by dartfordox (RIP) on Jan 23, 2014 22:26:37 GMT
I am intrigued to know what you have forecast for the night of Tues 18th Feb. Only 3 matches - Newport v Oxford, Rochdale v Burton and Southend v Hartlepool - 5 of the 6 clubs are in or around the play-offs.
I think that night will be a very pivotal night in L2. Is it too much to hope for an away win, a draw, and another away win respectively?
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Post by bazzer9461 on Jan 23, 2014 22:32:45 GMT
I am intrigued to know what you have forecast for the night of Tues 18th Feb. Only 3 matches - Newport v Oxford, Rochdale v Burton and Southend v Hartlepool - 5 of the 6 clubs are in or around the play-offs. I think that night will be a very pivotal night in L2. Is it too much to hope for an away win, a draw, and another away win respectively? Be good if that happened wouldn't it
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Post by purplemonkoufc on Jan 24, 2014 4:16:47 GMT
As much as i fancy a day out at wembley, i'd rather we sort the home form out and edge top 3
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Post by mooro on Feb 2, 2014 16:49:52 GMT
Using this leaves 1) Scun 84pts, 2) Southend 83, 3) Fleetwood 83, 4) Rochdale 82 5) Burton 82 6) Oxford 81 7) Chesterfield 79, with Plymouth and Newport back on 74 Interestingly, we would actually go top in mid February as our next six games are all against teams from the lower half, but then we have 10 out of 11 games against top half sides! First update, after Wimbledon: 1) Scun 84 (n/c) 2) Southend 83 (n/c) 3) Fleetwood 82 (-1 won at Burton but lost at home to York yesterday) 4) Chesterfield 81 (+2 won at York) 5) Oxford 81 (n/c) 6) Rochdale 81 (-1 lost at home to D&R) 7) Burton 79 (-3 lost at home to Fleetwood & could only draw there against Exeter) 8) Dag & Red 74 (won at Rochdale) 9) Plymouth 72 10) Newport 71. So, things largely going to expectation, but Rochdale, Burton and Newport all falling back a little & Chesterfield coming good again The system predicts we should win the next three, but then draw 10 of the next 11, which in practice means we may fall back a little in the next fortnight, but then any wins after that will strengthen our position nicely.....
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Post by mooro on Feb 23, 2014 17:19:05 GMT
Looking at the run-in from here, it does appear that ours is tougher than most, BUT using the above system, brings up two interesting (and encouraging) points: i) even though our run-in is harder than all but one of the top half, the system predicts that we will still have a comfortable cushion over 8th place (and only 3 off third) ii) having the second lowest expected points tally actually works in our favour, as it means we have more opportunity to improve, whereas others have more opportunity to throw points away (which is becoming a common theme all round in recent weeks). Below is the latest estimate, with their remaining predicted points(*), added to their current to give a final total: Roch - P14 9W 5D = 32pts + 57 = 89 Scun - P14 6W = 26pts + 58 = 84 Fleetwood - P15 6W 9D = 27pts + 52 = 79 Ch'field - P14 3W 11D = 20pts + 58 = 78 Southend - P14 7W 7D = 28pts + 49 = 77 Oxford - P13 4W 9D = 21pts + 55 = 76 Burton - P14 5W 9D = 24pts + 52 = 76 Newport - P17 6W 11D = 29pts + 42 = 71 Plymouth P15 7W = 29pts + 42 = 71 D&R - P14 8W 6D = 30pts + 40 = 70 Hartlepool P13 7W 6D = 27pts + 42 = 69 Points system - any match against top 12 side, or away to lower mid-table to be a draw // home to lower half, or away to bottom six to be a win.. for the record, although we dont play on Tuesday, with Sunnie, burton, Southend or newport predicted to win and Fleetwood, Plymouth & chesterfield expected to draw, then there is decent potential for our position to be strengthened rather than weakened by the games played...
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Post by mooro on Feb 23, 2014 17:20:55 GMT
Looking at the run-in from here, it does appear that ours is tougher than most, BUT using the above system, brings up two interesting (and encouraging) points: i) even though our run-in is harder than all but one of the top half, the system predicts that we will still have a comfortable cushion over 8th place (and only 3 off third) ii) having the second lowest expected points tally actually works in our favour, as it means we have more opportunity to improve, whereas others have more opportunity to throw points away (which is becoming a common theme all round in recent weeks). Below is the latest estimate, with their remaining predicted points(*), added to their current to give a final total: Roch - P14 9W 5D = 32pts + 57 = 89 Scun - P14 6W = 26pts + 58 = 84 Fleetwood - P15 6W 9D = 27pts + 52 = 79 Ch'field - P14 3W 11D = 20pts + 58 = 78 Southend - P14 7W 7D = 28pts + 49 = 77 Oxford - P13 4W 9D = 21pts + 55 = 76 Burton - P14 5W 9D = 24pts + 52 = 76 Newport - P17 6W 11D = 29pts + 42 = 71 Plymouth P15 7W = 29pts + 42 = 71 D&R - P14 8W 6D = 30pts + 40 = 70 Hartlepool P13 7W 6D = 27pts + 42 = 69 Points system - any match against top 12 side, or away to lower mid-table to be a draw // home to lower half, or away to bottom six to be a win.. for the record, although we dont play on Tuesday, with Sunnie, burton, Southend or newport predicted to win and Fleetwood, Plymouth & chesterfield expected to draw, then there is decent potential for our position to be strengthened rather than weakened by the games played... Another interesting fact is that an 8 followed by a D appears to introduce a wholly unnecessary comedy face in the middle of some deadly serious analysis.........
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Post by moomooland on Feb 23, 2014 17:26:32 GMT
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Post by ox9hp18 on Feb 23, 2014 21:16:21 GMT
mass suicide in oxon,bucks,& the rest of the civilised world , therefore relegating brigend to 2nd in the "self-topping league" UNLESS our owner/god pulls an exeptional rabbit out of the hat in the next week !
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Post by KLYellow on Feb 24, 2014 0:22:25 GMT
We need a serious uptick in form. Rochdale are top of the form league right now, so I would be very surprised if we get something at Spotland.
I feel unless we improve a lot, we are destined for the playoffs, along with Fleetwood, Burton and Southend.
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Post by dubaiyellow on Feb 24, 2014 9:07:06 GMT
if we get 7pts from the next 3 games we should be back in the automatic promotion places and with the players returning i think we are going to be even harder to beat and will remain there for the rest of the season. ive said it before but i honestly still think the best is yet to come from this group of players. Scunthorpe aside there arent many better in this league. Time to stand up and be counted, have some belief, show some real form and start to dominate teams more. Barring disasterous injuries, I think we will finish 2nd.
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Post by scotters on Feb 24, 2014 9:42:58 GMT
if we get 7pts from the next 3 games we should be back in the automatic promotion places and with the players returning i think we are going to be even harder to beat and will remain there for the rest of the season. ive said it before but i honestly still think the best is yet to come from this group of players. Scunthorpe aside there arent many better in this league. Time to stand up and be counted, have some belief, show some real form and start to dominate teams more. Barring disasterous injuries, I think we will finish 2nd. Got to admire your optimism! Personally I can't see the autos happening for us, barring a new manager and a big jump in form along with it. That said, a win this weekend and I'll probably start believing again...
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Post by tonyw on Feb 24, 2014 13:27:12 GMT
Doing some number crunching, the average number of points for the team finishing 7th in League Two over the past five years is exactly 70 (range 68-72). The average for 3rd place is 80.4 (78-84). Now obviously there's only so far you can take such averages - every season is different. But trends can be informative.
Building in some leeway for varianace - if we get to 74 points, I think we can be very comfortable of a playoff place. From here, that would be something like 6W 1D 6L or 5W 4D 4L. In other words, we don't exactly have to set the world alight. Given the quality of our strikeforce and the level of team spirit we've shown.....I'd be surprised and extremely disappointed not to manage that.
To get to the 80-ish points that we would historically need to get automatics is likely going to require 8+ wins from our final 13 games. Given our current quality of all-around play, and the difficulty of our run-in - that seems like a long shot to me.
So I'm going to start getting my playoff gear together again. And definitely not going to plan anything for May 26th.
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Post by barryspang on Feb 24, 2014 16:07:15 GMT
One thing I noticed when looking at the remaining games...the game in hand Rochdale have over us is against Northampton. Do us a favour Mr Wilder.
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Post by ballstreet on Feb 25, 2014 13:59:38 GMT
With only ourselves and Rochdale not in action tonight at the top end of League 2 how do we see our opposition for promotion getting on tonight. Personally think Wilder will do a favour and Burton will fall at home to Torquay, Chesterfield only managing a draw but Scunny continue their winning ways. Also think Newport will grind out the 3pts. and Fleetwood to not lose against Plymouth. Chesterfield 1-1 Burton 1-0 L Fleetwood 2-1 W Scunthorpe 3-2 W Southend 2-1 L Newport 2-1 W Those results would keep Oxford 4th
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Post by oufcrealist on Feb 25, 2014 14:20:15 GMT
With only ourselves and Rochdale not in action tonight at the top end of League 2 how do we see our opposition for promotion getting on tonight. Personally think Wilder will do a favour and Burton will fall at home to Torquay, Chesterfield only managing a draw but Scunny continue their winning ways. Also think Newport will grind out the 3pts. and Fleetwood to not lose against Plymouth. Chesterfield 1-1 Burton 1-0 L Fleetwood 2-1 W Scunthorpe 3-2 W Southend 2-1 L Newport 2-1 W Those results would keep Oxford 4th Burton are away to Torquay!!
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Post by ballstreet on Feb 25, 2014 14:46:02 GMT
my bad, either way still think Torquay will sneak a 1-0 win
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Post by mooro on Feb 25, 2014 22:04:16 GMT
Looking at the run-in from here, it does appear that ours is tougher than most, BUT using the above system, brings up two interesting (and encouraging) points: i) even though our run-in is harder than all but one of the top half, the system predicts that we will still have a comfortable cushion over 8th place (and only 3 off third) ii) having the second lowest expected points tally actually works in our favour, as it means we have more opportunity to improve, whereas others have more opportunity to throw points away (which is becoming a common theme all round in recent weeks).Below is the latest estimate, with their remaining predicted points(*), added to their current to give a final total: Roch - P14 9W 5D = 32pts + 57 = 89 Scun - P14 6W = 26pts + 58 = 84 Fleetwood - P15 6W 9D = 27pts + 52 = 79 Ch'field - P14 3W 11D = 20pts + 58 = 78 Southend - P14 7W 7D = 28pts + 49 = 77 Oxford - P13 4W 9D = 21pts + 55 = 76 Burton - P14 5W 9D = 24pts + 52 = 76 Newport - P17 6W 11D = 29pts + 42 = 71 Plymouth P15 7W = 29pts + 42 = 71 D&R - P14 8W 6D = 30pts + 40 = 70 Hartlepool P13 7W 6D = 27pts + 42 = 69 Points system - any match against top 12 side, or away to lower mid-table to be a draw // home to lower half, or away to bottom six to be a win.. for the record, although we dont play on Tuesday, with Sunnie, burton, Southend or newport predicted to win and Fleetwood, Plymouth & chesterfield expected to draw, then there is decent potential for our position to be strengthened rather than weakened by the games played...So none of the four that SHOULD have won, did, but two of the three that should have settled for one point, got three! Tonights results have actually moved us up the predicted final table ahead of Southend, while more dropped points for Newport drop them behind the other chasers... 1) Roch 89, 2) Scun 82 3) Ch'fd 80 4) Fl'wd 78 5) OUFC 76 6) Southend 74 7) Burton 74 8) Plymouth 73 9) D&R 70 10) Hartlepool 69 11) Newport 68
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Post by foley on Feb 25, 2014 23:48:37 GMT
Plymouth seem to have come from nowhere to finish one point off the play offs!
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Post by neilio on Feb 26, 2014 8:02:26 GMT
Every season the team that needs to be feared is the team that gets a good run going last 8 - 10 games and hits top form at the end. They normally sheek into 7 th spot and end up winning the playoffs. Bit to early I reckon to predict that team but Plymouth look dangerous at the moment but I suspect they may have peaked a bit early and will fall away at the end.
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Post by mooro on Feb 26, 2014 13:32:00 GMT
Every season the team that needs to be feared is the team that gets a good run going last 8 - 10 games and hits top form at the end. They normally sheek into 7 th spot and end up winning the playoffs. Bit to early I reckon to predict that team but Plymouth look dangerous at the moment but I suspect they may have peaked a bit early and will fall away at the end. Indeed, a couple of weeks ago I thought it might be Hartlepool, before that Morecambe, not to mention Newport sat there with their games in hand. The big difference though has been Southend's poor run of form (4pts in 7 games) that has seen them drop away from the 'safe seven' - as it was. We've notched up 11 over the same period. Them falling backwards has given the chasers a target to go for, so it remains very interesting.
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