|
Post by charliesghost on Feb 17, 2011 15:47:11 GMT
About a month ago, I looked forward to the mid Jan- mid Feb period and reckoned that it was a crucial period, as we played tough games against teams in mid-to-upper table, including some difficult away fixtures.
My point, really, was that this was a time to dig in, stay in touch and make sure we kept the scoreboard ticking over. It looked like a run where we could easily go onto a losing streak.
Happily, that didn't happen. Defeats were followed by gritty performances, and the Rotherham win - a welcome 3 points after a couple of draws - meant that we probably just about came out even over that period. Won 2, lost 2, drew 3: a 6/10 result, given the strength of the opposition.
But if we're going to kick on, and get into the play-offs we're going to need to improve again, certainly in terms of points scoring.
Morecambe, Lincoln, Hereford and Stockport - our next four fixtures - are all games against weak opposition (though Lincoln are improving ominously). Yes, three of them are away, but I'm not sure that we can afford to go into this run with an "away team mentality".
We really need to attack, in the belief that we can win all those games. Not to say that we WILL win those games, but we'd be better off winning 2 and losing 2 than losing 1 and drawing 3.
Win three, as we should be capable of: Hereford at home, and two of the three away games - and we'll almost certainly be in the play-off places, on 53 odd points, come our trip to Port Vale on Saturday 12.
After that, we have 6 home games out of 10. And an away game at Barnet. Win 5 of those games and we'd be on 68 points, leaving us just needing to scrap 3 or 4 points from the remaining 4 away games at Shrewsbury, Vale, Bury and Accrington to make it up to 72 points and an almost certain play-off place.
Of course, things will certainly work out very differently, in terms of individual results, but we don't need to get any shock results: just win most of our home games, beat a couple of weak sides away and pick up the odd point away to better sides.
What are we going to need to do to achieve that? Well, having given up on our set-pieces altogether (do we practise at all?), there are two or three other things which need to come along a bit:
1/ Beano's form. He's our top scorer, but his form in front of goal is seriously patchy. I'm not sure we can afford him to need four chances for every goal he scores. Not if we're going to win away games.
2/ Our central defence. It's good on paper, but still leaks bafflingly soft goals, the one against Rotherham being a case in point. They need to get nastier.. to commit fouls higher up the pitch, to be willing to throw themselves around, to do everything possible to keep a clean sheet.
3/ Our inconsistent full-backs need to be at their best. We're a different side with a flying Damian Batt involved. It gives the dreaded 4-3-3 some much-needed width, and prevents the opposition pressing us back, because our midfield and central defence have extra passing options.
Most of the rest of the team is consistent enough - the CBs, Batt and Constable at their best and we'll make it, I reckon. A stuttering Beano, gaffe-prone Batt and a soft CB partnership and we'll fall short, no matter what the quality of our general play might be.
|
|
|
Post by scoob on Feb 17, 2011 16:21:15 GMT
Charlie whilst I agree with the overall gist of your post I would question some of the detail.
Don't make the mistake of looking at the table and belive that teams below mid-table are weak. Are Lincoln and Hereford really weak? They are 1 and 2 in the form table having averaged in excess of 2 points per game over the last 8 games and that is a long enough period to demonstrate that they have built a capable team. Conversely Crewe, Rotherham and Port Vale have been struggling to average a draw in the last 8.
To get in the play-offs we do need to up our form of the last eight games (Ave 1.5 pts) but we do not need to set the world alight. As you say 72 is probably the target for promotion so we need to average 1.9 points and consistency will be the key for that. We must beat the teams who are weak so wins over Port Vale & Crewe currently fall into that category. We must not panic if results against the stronger teams, including Hereford & Lincoln, do not go our way.
I really feel that Batt is a key player but we also need good performances from MacLean, McLaren, Beano and his partners week in week out to make the difference.
|
|
|
Post by hairy on Feb 17, 2011 17:05:23 GMT
This is a strange league in that you dont fear anyone and are quite confident of getting points against anyone, yet conversly realise that we are just as inconsistent and as capable of not playing well and losing to anyone as everyone else is.
Cant see it being a high points total needed to get in the play offs so the biggest quality we may need to get in their is the fabled bouncebackability ie get a result after a loss. A bad run could kill our season so its important that we at the very least keep ticking along.
|
|
|
Post by KLYellow on Feb 18, 2011 0:06:12 GMT
Charlie, good post! But my thoughts are I still think we need around 74 to 75 points to get into the playoffs. That is another 30 points from what we have now. With only 15 games for us left now, it means we have to win 10 of the 15 games. Unless we really do hit a purple patch, I cant see that happening with our form over the season.
I think its great CW is being positive and say we will push for it, but I think we will miss out by around 5 points.
|
|
|
Post by scoob on Feb 18, 2011 8:37:48 GMT
HKY where do you get your 74/75 points from?
In the last 10 years the average points required to get in the play offs is 70, the highest being 74 and lowest being 64 with 72 only being exceeded on that one occasion.
At the moment Torquay currently have the 7th highest average points per game over the whole season at 1.50 and that equates to 69 points. Shrewsbury in third place are averaging 1.64 which equates to 75/76 points so that may be enought for auto promotion. At the moment of the top 7 only Shrewsbury and Gillingham are exceeding their season average on their form over 8 games and Chesterfield, Rotherham and Port Vale are way below their's. Of the teams below us only Southend, Lincoln and Northampton are significantly above their season average and the latter two of these have a lot of ground to make up if they are to make a challenge.
To put all of this in perspective in our last eight games our record is W3 D3 L2 and in our next eight games we need to pick up 15 points to be on track for the play-offs so that is W4 D3 L1 or W5 L3. That is an upturn in form but not a massive change and looking at the games ahead it is possible.
What we now need is for the team to have absolute belief that they are up to the challenge and they need the crowds in the stadia to have that belief too. If we set a target that looks beyond us then it will be difficult to maintain the belief.
I BELIEVE!!!
|
|
|
Post by KLYellow on Feb 18, 2011 10:44:01 GMT
Scoob, I understand what your saying. Thats why I feel the next 5 games are crucial with 4 away. Then we have 3 games at home and we good form, could pick up maximum for them.
I am hopeful, but dont want to get disappointed.
Have a look at the below link. It puts on around 65 to 66 points and 7th place on between 69 and 71 points. I put 74 to be safe
|
|
|
Post by scoob on Feb 18, 2011 11:20:36 GMT
Fair enough HKY.
I will, of course, be disappointed if we don't make the play-offs just because we have got ourselves into a position where they are a definite possibility. However, provided that the team puts up a good challenge the disappointment will be tempered by the fact that we have had a good season and hopefully some big crowds as it draws to a conclusion. If, however, we wilt away and don't challenge I will be awfully disappointed but I will be surprised if this happens.
|
|
|
Post by sheikdjibouti on Feb 18, 2011 11:33:05 GMT
Can you remember how you felt the last time we missed out on the Div 2 play-offs on the last day of the season?
We won at home but then other results went against us (including that dodgy penalty miss)
|
|
|
Post by scoob on Feb 18, 2011 12:01:51 GMT
Can you remember how you felt the last time we missed out on the Div 2 play-offs on the last day of the season? We won at home but then other results went against us (including that dodgy penalty miss) On the day I will be gutted, if it happens, but the feeling will not last too long after reflection. If we stay in L2 we have much better chance of success next season than if we get promoted. Every cloud has a silver lining .
|
|
|
Post by KLYellow on Feb 20, 2011 14:40:14 GMT
Can you remember how you felt the last time we missed out on the Div 2 play-offs on the last day of the season? We won at home but then other results went against us (including that dodgy penalty miss) On the day I will be gutted, if it happens, but the feeling will not last too long after reflection. If we stay in L2 we have much better chance of success next season than if we get promoted. Every cloud has a silver lining . Scoobs, well thats 1 3-0 win away i didnt expect and another win and 3 points on the board! To be honest, my heart wanted a win, but head was predicting a draw or loss. If we can beat Hereford and keep the roll going, I will be very happy. But, what you said about next season, I do disagree. I do worry that we might lose some of our momentum, and feel Div 2 will be stronger with the possible likes of Crawley, Luton, Swindon, etc in the league.
|
|
|
Post by hairy on Feb 20, 2011 14:48:53 GMT
I cant say I worry to much about Crawley, luton or the scum. Both of the teams coming up will be competitive but not as strong as the top of this league at the moment. As for the scum I have got the feeling they are at the begining of a dramatic decline.
Teams end up in the division they are because thats the level of players they have, I remember Luton were supposed to win every game last season but they were nothing special.
Good thing about this league is with 3 automatic and then 4 play-off spots if someone runs away with the league it still leaves plenty to play for. I genuinely believe we have the potential to play our games and leave other sides worrying about us.
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Feb 20, 2011 15:14:30 GMT
On the day I will be gutted, if it happens, but the feeling will not last too long after reflection. If we stay in L2 we have much better chance of success next season than if we get promoted. Every cloud has a silver lining . Scoobs, well thats 1 3-0 win away i didnt expect and another win and 3 points on the board! To be honest, my heart wanted a win, but head was predicting a draw or loss. If we can beat Hereford and keep the roll going, I will be very happy. But, what you said about next season, I do disagree. I do worry that we might lose some of our momentum, and feel Div 2 will be stronger with the possible likes of Crawley, Luton, Swindon, etc in the league. but four teams will go up as well. So the league will be weaker without Chesterfield Shrewsbury Rotherham and us. Start analysing league 1. I reckon about four decent teams there (soton, Wednesday, charlton, huddersfield) from support. The rest are on a par or below us.
|
|
|
Post by jimc on Feb 20, 2011 15:21:37 GMT
Pre-season I was wildly optimistic.
Once things got going I down-scaled my expectations and just hoped we could cobble together 40 points which, by my reckoning at the time, would keep us clear of relegation.
Now I'm getting sucked back into the optimism - I know some other teams have played fewer games than us, but automatic promotion seems tantalisingly near.
In summary: if Hereford beat us, I might have to consider punching myself in the face for being so stupid.
|
|
|
Post by macleanmassivefan on Feb 20, 2011 16:28:48 GMT
If Hereford beat us it would be a travesty! Our team has changed though as on that day our line-up was Clarke, Purkiss, Wright, Worley, Tonkin, Payne, Midson, Craddock and Beano, Now on Saturday our starting line-up will be something like this I reckon: Clarkey, Batty, Wrighty, Tonks, Worley, Mclaren, Hessie, Hally, MacLean, Beano, Craddock. Bench would be something like this: Easty, Clisty, Hackers, Potter, Payne, Midson
|
|
|
Post by charliesghost on Feb 21, 2011 15:27:53 GMT
Pre-season I was wildly optimistic. Once things got going I down-scaled my expectations and just hoped we could cobble together 40 points which, by my reckoning at the time, would keep us clear of relegation. Now I'm getting sucked back into the optimism - I know some other teams have played fewer games than us, but automatic promotion seems tantalisingly near. In summary: if Hereford beat us, I might have to consider punching myself in the face for being so stupid. That was a massive win on Saturday, as with other teams drawing and losing it really propelled us into the automatic promotion shake-up, as well as the play-off reckoning. Plus, in terms of this little patch of four winnable games, it takes pressure off. We can go into the Hereford game full of confidence and self-belief. And if we win that one, then the following two away games will seem opportunities, rather than "must-win to stay alive". I'm starting to get optimistic. Dreadful sign, I'm sure, but it just looks as if, contrary to last season, we've found out about our problems earlyish, and acted to solve them. Clearly, we cannot afford many injuries, or a severe loss of form from key players (Clarke, Wright, McLaren and MacLean are the ones who make us play), but at the moment we look a strong proposition in most games.
|
|
|
Post by superox on Feb 21, 2011 15:31:28 GMT
Hereford will be no pushovers. Their form is excellent and in the pacy Fleetwood they possess a forward who can skin defences for fun.
Saturday will be a tough test.
|
|
|
Post by longliveclarkey on Feb 21, 2011 16:47:24 GMT
Hereford will be no pushovers. Their form is excellent and in the pacy Fleetwood they possess a forward who can skin defences for fun. Saturday will be a tough test. Our defence is not known for it's fear of pacy players. Batt and Tonks are two quick fullbacks (especially the former), Wright easily has the pace of a midfielder and when called upon, Worley is capable of matching that too despite his size. I'd be far more worried if they were set piece experts.
|
|
|
Post by scoob on Feb 21, 2011 18:11:20 GMT
Too much sense talked on this thread!!
I am very optomistic that we have the team to, at least, get into the play-offs but don't fear the consequences if we fail to get promoted. Most of the teams coming down will be in a financial mess especially the Scum. We are strong financially in League Two and that will not change. I believe that Wilder will develop the team further and we will challenge next season because the momentum has been maintained already. It started when we missed out on the play-offs in Wilder's first season but was not halted by that disappointment.
|
|
|
Post by charliesghost on Feb 22, 2011 14:45:16 GMT
Too much sense talked on this thread!! I am very optomistic that we have the team to, at least, get into the play-offs but don't fear the consequences if we fail to get promoted. Most of the teams coming down will be in a financial mess especially the Scum. We are strong financially in League Two and that will not change. I believe that Wilder will develop the team further and we will challenge next season because the momentum has been maintained already. It started when we missed out on the play-offs in Wilder's first season but was not halted by that disappointment. That is true. If we finish top ten in this League, momentum will have been maintained. A further small improvement of the squad, together with added experience, should then see us challenge strongly next season. But... but... but.... this is now a cracking opportunity. Imagine taking Chesterfield out, and looking at it as a league where top two go up, plus one from four. In that scenario, we are bang in there, and playing well to boot, with (touch wood) limited injuries and suspensions. The momentum of successive promotions would be enormous: I'd envisage us kicking off next season with average crowds pushing up to 8000, and the quality of player Wilder would be able to attract in the summer would be terrific with the club on a roll and profitable. These factors, in turn, would enable the Lenagans to feel confident of the buisness case for buying the stadium, whereas if we were to hang around in League 2 for a few years the fear could be that we'd be hung with a debt millstone around oru neck again, with diminishing revenues. Such is the reality of hope and football. So - whilst I'm just grateful that we're even in this position, the possibilities following success are so significant that it's hard not to get the old prayer mat out!! Bring on Saturday...
|
|
|
Post by scoob on Feb 23, 2011 0:23:31 GMT
I agree Charlie I can see nothing but good in continuing the momentum this season and moving on up into League One. Back to back promotions and almost certainly two years of profit can only create good. Whilst I do not fear the conseuences of staying in League Two I can't see much to be gained by it so I absolutely agree that we must go for it. It is much easier to aim to have a good 14 game season than to have to start all over again with 46 to go. At this point we don't even need outstanding form to get into the play-offs (8 wins & a draw or two will probably do it) so we have a fantastic opportunity.
|
|
|
Post by paulayres on Feb 23, 2011 7:47:27 GMT
Just a little bit of investment to bring in a decent left back would help the cause. The club is on target to finish the season in profit, so money could be used to take a quality LB on loan. The extra money we would get by being in the playoffs would pay for this and you never know an automatic place could be in our grasp. 500 extra on the gate would bring in £5,500 based on the average of £11 per supporter.
|
|
|
Post by hoppingmad on Feb 23, 2011 8:21:46 GMT
Just a little bit of investment to bring in a decent left back would help the cause. The club is on target to finish the season in profit, so money could be used to take a quality LB on loan. The extra money we would get by being in the playoffs would pay for this and you never know an automatic place could be in our grasp. 500 extra on the gate would bring in £5,500 based on the average of £11 per supporter. I believe that Tonks and Kinni are perfectly good left backs for League 2 and I don't see any point in unnecessarily messing about with a defence that has now started delivering clean sheets.
|
|
|
Post by scoob on Feb 23, 2011 10:41:10 GMT
Only Shrewsbury and Hereford have conceeded less goals than us in the last 8 games. We have let 7 in and they have let in 6. If we want to be picky I suggest it is at the other end of the pitch that we are not doing quite so well but I think we have a squad good enough so why upset the balance by bringing anyone in unless we suffer injuries?
There is always the argument to spend more money but resisting this is why we are looking like making a profit again this season. Tinkering with the team has not worked too often so lets accept what we have and let them get on with it.
|
|
|
Post by charliesghost on Feb 23, 2011 11:20:35 GMT
Only Shrewsbury and Hereford have conceeded less goals than us in the last 8 games. We have let 7 in and they have let in 6. If we want to be picky I suggest it is at the other end of the pitch that we are not doing quite so well but I think we have a squad good enough so why upset the balance by bringing anyone in unless we suffer injuries? There is always the argument to spend more money but resisting this is why we are looking like making a profit again this season. Tinkering with the team has not worked too often so lets accept what we have and let them get on with it. Oh definitely. We'd be mad to tinker at this stage. The team that played so well against Rotherham and whupped Morecambe is the team that either will or won't get us promoted. I do agree with you on our attack, though. Whilst clean sheets are a great target for us, it's worrying how many chances we are needing to score one at the moment. Beano's really down on confidence, for some reason, and his first touch has become a liability. Maclean has left his striking boots behind, for all his good play, leaving Craddock as our only reliable goal-scorer.
|
|
|
Post by alessandro on Feb 23, 2011 11:47:26 GMT
I have to say Im very glad that the tinkering of the latter half of last season (kettering and Aldershot players seemed to have a bus running to and from our ground) has seemingly not happened as much.
I'd bite the hand off for a bit of promotion and the more I stare at the league table, and the momentum we've gained since christmas, along with our extra support, plus our experience in having tasted a bit of success in the last 24 months, the more you feel it is possible.
There are so many permutations. Even a failed play off campaign would be good experience, keep the fans and players hungry, and add to the war chest for next season.
|
|
|
Post by paulayres on Feb 23, 2011 12:08:59 GMT
Sorry to dis-agree, but the left back position is one of our weakest areas. If you think Tonkin is good enough for league 2 where have you been when we were shipping goals. Most of the mistakes take place by the left back. Regarding the front men, we have enough players up front, maybe the system or the pairings are wrong.
|
|
|
Post by m on Feb 23, 2011 12:14:48 GMT
We have enough players to cover left back too, Kinniburgh and Clist.
Nothing's wrong (on the pitch) at the moment.
|
|
|
Post by hoppingmad on Feb 23, 2011 12:37:11 GMT
Sorry to dis-agree, but the left back position is one of our weakest areas. If you think Tonkin is good enough for league 2 where have you been when we were shipping goals. Most of the mistakes take place by the left back. Regarding the front men, we have enough players up front, maybe the system or the pairings are wrong. I do of course respect your opinion. You may view the left back position as one of our weakest areas but I still think both are good enough for league 2. I don't think that much tinkering is required at this stage and I certainly don't think that introducing a new left back to the club is going to make us a certainty for the playoffs or automatic promotion. I feel that the goals we were shipping were a collective fault of the defence which now seems to be playing well together and hence my view in not tinkering.
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Feb 23, 2011 14:44:58 GMT
I see no reason why we shouldn't push on this season. The squad seems to have settled again and although Morecambe were poor, other teams will start to fear us, and three clean sheets and a few goals should allow us (and the team) to start enjoying the games again.
|
|
|
Post by Marked Ox on Feb 23, 2011 17:23:56 GMT
The only addition I think we need is a centre-back who can genuinely push Worley and Wright for a starting place to keep them on their toes. Personally, I don't think either Sangare or Gaughan are up to this currently. A pity we couldn't have had Leigh Franks for the season as he would be a better option as a back-up compared to what we have.
The one position amply covered is left-back. For me signing a left-back would be a complete waste of money especially considering how well Tonks has played recently and that Kinni has done well in the past.
|
|