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Post by saddletramp on Oct 17, 2017 18:29:21 GMT
We have the lowest growth and highest inflation of any EU economy. Inflation now at 3% We ? We ? You live in Ireland.since when does Britain become we ? www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/1017/912981-greek-economy/Years of austerity imposed by the International Monetary Fund and euro zone lenders in exchange for bailouts have made many Greeks far poorer and shrunk consumption accordingly. Remember the old UB40 song "I am a one in ten a number on a list?" A song mocking the fact that we had 10% unemployment. "Economic recovery will be key to bringing down a Greek jobless rate of 21%, the highest in the euro zone" Well if they were Greek they would have to change it to " I am a one in five a number on a list" 21% Unemployment, Viva la EU. Mind you it's better for the youth. www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/Greek youth unemployment 43.3% "i am a one in just over one, a number on a list" Viva la EU. Spain 38%,Italy 35 %,the whole of the EU 16.7% UK 11%. How the F@@k could we think of leaving the EU,just think of the children,if we stay we might be able to compete with Southern Europe and put an extra 5/10/20% of our youth on the dole.
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BMW
Oct 19, 2017 17:46:54 GMT
via mobile
Post by ag on Oct 19, 2017 17:46:54 GMT
Charlie you want the UK to be back competing with China USA & Japan do you? Great -I'd like Oxford to be competing in the Champions League. .
The US is a lot bigger than we are. So is China. The US has got a huge internal market which m it's been able to recover from the recession much quicker. Of course it didn't have George Osborne so it was able to recover from the recession a lot quicker
The Us Market is 18.75 trillion almost 8 times the Uk market UK 2.763 trill
UK is 15% of their economy EU is 47% of ours
And most of what we export are services which are easy to move around . The thing is Charlie old bean real wages haven't gone up for ten years. So. Someone has been doing well over the last few years but it's been the likes of you and Boris Johnson, not the working person. Likewise all that employment- Handy to have a servant on call on zero hours contracts when you're having some people over to shoot the rest of us need a regular income and know that zero hours contracts are about getting people off the books, not earning a living.
Are you a no-dealer longing for the glorious days of empire ? Put your pith helmet away Because it's not coming back.
Here's Martin Wolf in the Financial Times. You seem to be using Boris Johnson's collection of Biggles books.
"
It is highly likely that the Brexit negotiations will fail, imposing an abrupt shock on the UK economy and ruining relations with its neighbours. This view is condemned by those who insist we must be more positive. That is like advising someone who has just jumped off a building that, if only he thought positively, he could fly. To understand the state we are now in we need to understand the zombie ideas that hold so many Brexiters in their grip.
The first such idea is that the EU is being unreasonable in insisting that the broad terms of the divorce (if not the details) are settled before moving on to transitional arrangements. David Davis, who is in charge of the negotiations for the UK, complained to the House of Commons that “they are using time pressure to see if they can get more money out of us. Bluntly that’s what is going on — it’s obvious to anybody.” Indeed, it is. Stop complaining: that is what strong parties do.
A linked zombie idea is that the UK is really in a stronger position than the EU, because it runs a trade deficit with it. But, even in goods, UK exports to the EU are three times more important to the UK’s economy than vice versa (7.5 per cent of gross domestic product against 2.5 per cent). Even without the UK, the EU remains the second-largest economy in the world, with an economy almost six times bigger, at market prices, in 2016. The UK is negotiating with an economic superpower. How does that feel? Just ask the Canadians, now negotiating with the US over the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Even the notion that the EU’s priorities are unreasonable is a zombie idea. It makes sense for the EU to insist that the issues of money, Ireland and EU residents in the UK be dealt with, at least in principle, before moving on. It also has good reason to feel that the UK’s suggestions on the first two are inadequate or incoherent. Despite Theresa May’s helpful speech in Florence last month, the UK has not indicated in any detail what it thinks it owes: Boris Johnson’s statement that the EU can “go whistle” for money is characteristically unhelpful.
A further zombie idea is that the UK economy is a powerhouse. A reading of the latest economic survey from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development demonstrates how delusional this is. The UK has a good employment record. But its average productivity is at best mediocre and its productivity growth post-crisis is in the basement, down there with Italy’s. Investment is weak and relative export performance consistently dismal. Contrast Germany. Debt-fuelled consumption kept growth up after the Brexit referendum. But real wages are now falling and growth has weakened, partly due to the dawning reality that Brexit is likely to be ultra-hard, despite the chancellor Philip Hammond’s justified efforts to prevent this disaster from happening.
Yet another zombie idea is that the UK can survive quite well without a favourable deal with the EU or a transition to such a deal. It can, we are told, trade perfectly well on World Trade Organisation terms. In any case, trade with our neighbours just does not matter that much. But, as Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, has rightly noted, the initial impact of Brexit will be “deglobalisation”, not a “global Britain”.
This is self-evident. It is also impossible to compare today’s intra-industrial trade, particularly within supply chains, with the inter-industry trade of the 19th century, as some now do. In trade today both proximity and regulatory barriers matter. It will be impossible to offset the loss of favourable access to EU markets, which now take some 40 per cent of the UK’s exports. Even to start on this, the UK would have to reach favourable deals with the US, China and India, the actual and potential superpowers. In all such negotiations, the UK will be very much the weaker party. Talks would be brutal.
Yet another zombie is the idea that it will be possible to shift smoothly to WTO terms for trade with the EU. All procedures governing trade with the EU would need to be refashioned. That would take the enthusiastic co-operation of partners who will regard the UK as something like a pariah. Why should anybody think they will make it easy for the UK?
The last zombie is the idea that those who deny the claims of the Brexiters are “traitors” or “saboteurs” working against “the will of the people”. This is despotism. In a liberal democracy, we are all entitled to our opinions and to seek to overturn what we consider grossly mistaken decisions. The saboteurs are those whose zombie ideas have brought the UK to a ruinous break with its neighbours and natural partners. It is our right to argue this. And we will.
martin.wolf@ft.com"
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Post by yellowg on Oct 19, 2017 22:53:44 GMT
^^^sorry to jump in here ag, but your example of China and the USA is a strange one. Both are such vast lands with a vast populace, and GDP is naturally higher than that of the UK. GDP alone is a poor indicator of a nation's well-being. In the case of your examples, it paints a poor narrative of the situation in these respective countries, and ignores the fact that tens of millions of their people live in dire poverty...making Britain's poor folk look pretty minted. Their business bods might have some clout around the negotiating table, but ask one of the US families in one of the rust belt states how that's going for them, or a Chinese family who are existing hand to mouth...or I dare say a young Italian or Spaniard over the last decade...
Britain is pretty powerful. She is a very important and influential trading nation with many key commitments to different institutions and organisations around the world, bringing many Intel, financial, security and political benefits to the western hemisphere. Let's not start having wild visions of empire (after all it was hard work and very taxing), but can we please retain a sense of balance. A poorer Britain will not help any western democratic state with their own concerns, and I believe in the mid/long term at least we will become more balanced, more productive and more influential as a nation. And very importantly a people who are comfortable in their own skins.
In regards to your 'last zombie', I absolutely support your right to argue and to have an opinion, however you don't have the right to seek to overturn a political decision taken by the electorate before its installed. Democracy and its integrity is only valid if you actually act on the national vote. Once we are out fill your boots, but for now I think you should respect the decision and do all you can to make it work for you and your family because make no mistake, our unity (or lack of it) and attitude will have an impact on things following our independence.
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BMW
Oct 19, 2017 23:23:41 GMT
via mobile
Post by ag on Oct 19, 2017 23:23:41 GMT
China and the USA were Charlie's examples, not mine.
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BMW
Oct 20, 2017 22:15:38 GMT
Post by yellowg on Oct 20, 2017 22:15:38 GMT
^^^apologies ag. So they were. Britain is nothing like China or the US...and should never aspire to be.
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