|
Post by holdsteady on May 12, 2017 18:48:34 GMT
So it's increasingly likely that BMW will leave unless we keep free movement is there anyone in Oxford who work at BMW. or whose business depends on BMW , or BMW workers? If not maybe they work for the University which is likely to lose millions in grants from the EU. Still Theresa May, eh guys....She'll give them a talking to. That'll sort it out. I worked at BMW for a few years, they threaten to leave every few months to get what they want from the government, council or their own workers. It's a bargaining tool they use to get what they want to from every situation.
|
|
|
Post by finlandia on May 12, 2017 19:19:08 GMT
Yep, but this time, they have the Brexit vote to back the threat up.
|
|
|
Post by flean on May 12, 2017 21:36:27 GMT
So it's increasingly likely that BMW will leave unless we keep free movement is there anyone in Oxford who work at BMW. or whose business depends on BMW , or BMW workers? If not maybe they work for the University which is likely to lose millions in grants from the EU. Still Theresa May, eh guys....She'll give them a talking to. That'll sort it out. I worked at BMW for a few years, they threaten to leave every few months to get what they want from the government, council or their own workers. It's a bargaining tool they use to get what they want to from every situation. Bet you're glad you used the used the past tense.
|
|
|
Post by saddletramp on May 21, 2017 6:20:11 GMT
A leading voice of German trade has warned that the country has a lot to lose in Brexit talks.
Dr Volker Treier warned Angela Merkel, who criticised British "illusions" about Brexit yesterday, that German economy will suffer if she does not treat the UK well.
During a panel discussion about Brexit on German television, the host asked: "Mr Treier, will the German economy after Brexit be left running around with a black eye? Great Britain is the third biggest trade partner."
Dr Treier responded: "Yes, we can already feel it. The British Pound has been devalued since the Brexit decision, it has been devalued if we go back even further.
"And in the past year our exports were in the black till the Brexit decision. In the end we landed at minus three per cent. In the fourth quarter there was a decline of nine per cent."
He added: "This means there is already some damage. Great Britain and the economy are helped by the weak pound at the moment.
"There will be obstacles in our relationship. Great Britain will no longer be a member of the EU and therefore we will have a different type of relationship and not the same good one we have today."
|
|
|
Post by tonyw on May 21, 2017 15:42:19 GMT
If your point that a hard Brexit is going to be bad for German business, Saddle.....then you're not going to find too many arguments. Of course it is....it's going to be bad for the German economy, bad for the British economy and bad for everyone else in Europe.
It's why all May's "We're fine with No Deal" talk is absolute bollocks. No deal by April 2019 will be a disaster for everyone.
Both sides need to give up the hard (wo)man rhetoric and get back to some diplomacy because there's a massive amount to do, not long to do it in, and no time to waste with all this aggressive posturing.
|
|
|
Post by Gary Baldi on May 21, 2017 20:19:13 GMT
You'd better hope Martin Selymayr gets the memo then.
|
|
|
Post by tonyw on May 22, 2017 2:51:09 GMT
You'd better hope Martin Selymayr gets the memo then. Martin Selymayr is a fanatic, and if he's the one setting the Brexit agenda, then basically everyone's doomed. It's up to the sane, pragmatic politicians on both sides to make sure that it doesn't happen. Problem is, I've not heard much sane, pragmatic talk from May on Brexit over the past six months......
|
|
|
Post by Gary Baldi on May 22, 2017 7:15:21 GMT
I'd hope that Selymayr is kept far away from the negotiations because his agenda is very different from the negotiators and he's not above silly little games. I'd hope that May's rhetoric is just a case of her being the bad cop and leaving David Davis to be the good cop - certainly Davis seems to have his head switched on.
I wouldn't be surprised if the UK walk out of the first negotiation due to the bill that we'll be asked to pay.
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 8:48:16 GMT
I'd hope that Selymayr is kept far away from the negotiations because his agenda is very different from the negotiators and he's not above silly little games. I'd hope that May's rhetoric is just a case of her being the bad cop and leaving David Davis to be the good cop - certainly Davis seems to have his head switched on. I wouldn't be surprised if the UK walk out of the first negotiation due to the bill that we'll be asked to pay. David Davis "has his head switched on." The man who begins negotiations by threatening to walk away www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-david-davis-britain-walk-out-talks-eu-demands-100bn-a7747086.htmlDont you mean "has his head in a bucket and seems to be in complete denial of the consequences of brexit what needs to be negotiated or how to go about it."
|
|
|
Post by oufcyellows on May 22, 2017 9:14:18 GMT
I think it's a good hand to play. The eu don't won't us to walk away (hard brexit) anymore than we do. It would be bad for both sides, but if we are prepared to do so and they see that we are serious about that possibility then they have to compromise on issues. If they know from the start that we won't do it, then they are on the front foot from the start, and can stick to their demands
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 9:20:42 GMT
I think it's a good hand to play. The eu don't won't us to walk away (hard brexit) anymore than we do. It would be bad for both sides, but if we are prepared to do so and they see that we are serious about that possibility then they have to compromise on issues. If they know from the start that we won't do it, then they are on the front foot from the start, and can stick to their demands Yes dear -that's right. The EU needs us more than we need them. There are no other countries in the world they can export to, whilst we have many many potential trading partners that are within easy travelling distance.
|
|
|
Post by oufcyellows on May 22, 2017 9:24:04 GMT
I think it's a good hand to play. The eu don't won't us to walk away (hard brexit) anymore than we do. It would be bad for both sides, but if we are prepared to do so and they see that we are serious about that possibility then they have to compromise on issues. If they know from the start that we won't do it, then they are on the front foot from the start, and can stick to their demands Yes dear -that's right. The EU needs us more than we need them. There are no other countries in the world they can export to, whilst we have many many potential trading partners that are within easy travelling distance. Didn't say that did I! Although look how long it took them to just strike up a deal with Canada. And while we only amount to something like 10% of their exports, I think I read we are still the single biggest. And that's not just my view dear that it would be bad for them, it's also merkles and a few other main players.
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 9:33:31 GMT
Yes dear -that's right. The EU needs us more than we need them. There are no other countries in the world they can export to, whilst we have many many potential trading partners that are within easy travelling distance. Didn't say that did I! Although look how long it took them to just strike up a deal with Canada. And while we only amount to something like 10% of their exports, I think I read we are still the single biggest. And that's not just my view dear that it would be bad for them, it's also merkles and a few other main players. Negotiating trade deals takes time. Not having a trade deal with the UK would be bad for Germany& the rest of the EU. Not having a trade deal with Germany & the Rest of the EU would be a complete disaster for the UK. And walking away as your first position as part of showboating for domestic consumption is just stupid.
|
|
|
Post by oufcyellows on May 22, 2017 9:35:22 GMT
Didn't say that did I! Although look how long it took them to just strike up a deal with Canada. And while we only amount to something like 10% of their exports, I think I read we are still the single biggest. And that's not just my view dear that it would be bad for them, it's also merkles and a few other main players. Negotiating trade deals takes time. Not having a trade deal with the UK would be bad for Germany& the rest of the EU. Not having a trade deal with Germany & the Rest of the EU would be a complete disaster for the UK. And walking away as your first position as part of showboating for domestic consumption is just stupid. Correct, but it's only u saying that it's as our first position which it clearly isn't. But to have it as a possibility strengthens our hand, as like u just said they know it would be bad for them
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 9:48:20 GMT
Negotiating trade deals takes time. Not having a trade deal with the UK would be bad for Germany& the rest of the EU. Not having a trade deal with Germany & the Rest of the EU would be a complete disaster for the UK. And walking away as your first position as part of showboating for domestic consumption is just stupid. Correct, but it's only u saying that it's as our first position which it clearly isn't. But to have it as a possibility strengthens our hand, as like u just said they know it would be bad for them Didn't you just post: "I wouldn't be surprised if the UK walk out of the first negotiation due to the bill that we'll be asked to pay." That would be our first negotiating position, then.
|
|
|
Post by oufcyellows on May 22, 2017 10:03:12 GMT
Did I ?
|
|
|
Post by Gary Baldi on May 22, 2017 12:15:38 GMT
I'd hope that Selymayr is kept far away from the negotiations because his agenda is very different from the negotiators and he's not above silly little games. I'd hope that May's rhetoric is just a case of her being the bad cop and leaving David Davis to be the good cop - certainly Davis seems to have his head switched on. I wouldn't be surprised if the UK walk out of the first negotiation due to the bill that we'll be asked to pay. David Davis "has his head switched on." The man who begins negotiations by threatening to walk away www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-david-davis-britain-walk-out-talks-eu-demands-100bn-a7747086.htmlDont you mean "has his head in a bucket and seems to be in complete denial of the consequences of brexit what needs to be negotiated or how to go about it." So you'd sit there and just take a ridiculous ask? Regardless, I don't think it would actually happen, but good to threaten it and send the message out. Bit like the EU changing the 50 billion to a 100 billion so the UK negotiate down to the 50 they want.
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 12:31:50 GMT
So you'd sit there and just take a ridiculous ask? Regardless, I don't think it would actually happen, but good to threaten it and send the message out. Bit like the EU changing the 50 billion to a 100 billion so the UK negotiate down to the 50 they want. The Eu haven't named any figures. Negotiating via the Daily Express is not a good idea. In fact reading the Daily Express isn't a good idea. If you don't think it would actually happen why did you say: "I wouldn't be surprised if the UK walk out of the first negotiation due to the bill that we'll be asked to pay. You sound even more unclear than Theresa May does about her own manifesto
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 12:34:20 GMT
No apologies it was Gary who said it- and David Davis, apparently.
|
|
|
Post by Gary Baldi on May 22, 2017 12:45:22 GMT
So you'd sit there and just take a ridiculous ask? Regardless, I don't think it would actually happen, but good to threaten it and send the message out. Bit like the EU changing the 50 billion to a 100 billion so the UK negotiate down to the 50 they want. The Eu haven't named any figures. Negotiating via the Daily Express is not a good idea. In fact reading the Daily Express isn't a good idea. If you don't think it would actually happen why did you say: "I wouldn't be surprised if the UK walk out of the first negotiation due to the bill that we'll be asked to pay. You sound even more unclear than Theresa May does about her own manifesto They have: www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/eu-politicians-back-brussels-call-for-uk-to-pay-60bn-exit-bill-before-trade-talks . Good god, do you not understand anything negotiations and pre-negotiations? I'm nowhere near a top negotiator, but even I know there are times to walk away and times to stay. And sometimes you need to threaten that to get people to lower demands.
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 12:57:35 GMT
says the cost "could range between €15bn and €80bn, depending on what assets and liabilities are included. "
I understand negptating well enough to know that threatening to walk out in the first session is stupid - especially if you are doing it primarily not to get the best possible result but to impress your supporters
|
|
|
Post by tonyw on May 22, 2017 14:22:01 GMT
Agree with ag - threatening to walk away as soon as you get to the table because you don't like what you're hearing is page 2 of the "How to Negotiate" manual. It's the sort of tactic you employ when you're buying a second-hand car. It's bush league stuff.
So, frankly, is asking for 100 billion if all you can really justify is 50 billion (although I haven't directly heard any EU spokespeople come out with that number yet....maybe they have). At this level, no negotiation is going to reach its conclusion on a "You said 4, I said 2, let's just do 3 alright?" basis.
This is going to be one of the most complex negotiations ever undertaken; there's at least half a dozen extremely major issues at play, and literally hundreds of smaller items to be agreed. The UK is negotiating against 27 different players....who seem relatively united at the moment, but do have a wide range of interests, sympathies and tolerance.
If we're going to avert catastrophe in 2019, Britain simply has to go about this in a more sophisticated manner.
Right now what they should be doing is 101 conciliatory meetings with all the major stakeholders in each of the 27 countries to develop as comprehensive as possible a landscape of the wants and needs of all the EU countries - and hopefully make a few friends at the same time; simultaneously they should be doing an absolute boatload of research to ensure that their negotiating position can be backed up robustly with cold, hard facts and logic.
Maybe they're doing these things at the moment - but all we hear is a bunch of strong-armed mouthing off to the press, which is achieving nothing in negotiation terms other than antagonising the other side....and is really only being done because there's an election in two and a bit weeks, and 52% of the electorate to appeal to with anti-EU rhetoric.
I'm highly sceptical of Corbyn being able (or indeed being all that interested) in negotiating Brexit.....but the starting position laid out in the Labour manifesto is an order of magnitude more nuanced and reasoned than the Tories (as well as their website being 100 times easier to navigate!).
|
|
|
Post by Gary Baldi on May 22, 2017 20:51:51 GMT
As I've said, I think this a pre-negotation (and posturing) going on between both sides about the structure of who wants to talk about what in a few weeks time. The threat to walk is a sign of don't come in with silly demands (and keep certain people away) - the same applies to the UK. Us walking in and saying we want the same as we have today is as laughable as it will never happen.
I hope both sides will shortly shut up and keep it largely behind doors (like our prospective takeover at OUFC). Both sides have been saying some inflammatory stuff - the worst was the leak from the dinner but by no means the only one. I wonder if consensus at the 27 country level will be easy to gain due the volatility of the political scene in Europe? Will a country like Poland have that much sway over Michel Barnier? The real effort, sadly, will be spent on Merkel and maybe Macron. Merkel is deal maker or breaker for me.
I suspect the real details will be ironed out by Oliver Robbins and Tim Barrow who seems more in the detail and well connected than the politicians are. Let's see.
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 21:11:18 GMT
As I've said, I think this a pre-negotation (and posturing) going on between both sides about the structure of who wants to talk about what in a few weeks time. The threat to walk is a sign of don't come in with silly demands (and keep certain people away) - the same applies to the UK. Us walking in and saying we want the same as we have today is as laughable as it will never happen. I hope both sides will shortly shut up and keep it largely behind doors (like our prospective takeover at OUFC). Both sides have been saying some inflammatory stuff - the worst was the leak from the dinner but by no means the only one. I wonder if consensus at the 27 country level will be easy to gain due the volatility of the political scene in Europe? Will a country like Poland have that much sway over Michel Barnier? The real effort, sadly, will be spent on Merkel and maybe Macron. Merkel is deal maker or breaker for me. I suspect the real details will be ironed out by Oliver Robbins and Tim Barrow who seems more in the detail and well connected than the politicians are. Let's see. The Eu won't " keep it behind closed doors" -they're a democratic institution and so each Parliament must have the right to approve the final deal. It's only May and Davis who want a hole and corner deal.
|
|
|
Post by Gary Baldi on May 22, 2017 21:33:09 GMT
As I've said, I think this a pre-negotation (and posturing) going on between both sides about the structure of who wants to talk about what in a few weeks time. The threat to walk is a sign of don't come in with silly demands (and keep certain people away) - the same applies to the UK. Us walking in and saying we want the same as we have today is as laughable as it will never happen. I hope both sides will shortly shut up and keep it largely behind doors (like our prospective takeover at OUFC). Both sides have been saying some inflammatory stuff - the worst was the leak from the dinner but by no means the only one. I wonder if consensus at the 27 country level will be easy to gain due the volatility of the political scene in Europe? Will a country like Poland have that much sway over Michel Barnier? The real effort, sadly, will be spent on Merkel and maybe Macron. Merkel is deal maker or breaker for me. I suspect the real details will be ironed out by Oliver Robbins and Tim Barrow who seems more in the detail and well connected than the politicians are. Let's see. The Eu won't " keep it behind closed doors" -they're a democratic institution and so each Parliament must have the right to approve the final deal. It's only May and Davis who want a hole and corner deal. Yes, the EU are negotiating on behalf of each parliament who will vote, but the negotiations will not take place in public. The UK, as nation state, will if you like, have had their vote on the deal when they get their agreement. In the same way previous govts integrated the UK further into Europe without the need for referenda or meaningful parliamentary votes. Belated cries of parliament voting and having say on leaving the EU feel soft on that regard. Were we going to get a vote on taking on the Euro as our currency? Or Freedom of Movement? Etc. Etc. And in all honesty, I wonder what the point of vote is given the conniption fits from the left of leaving without a deal and relying on WTO Terms and then possibly having to vote on inferior terms than were agreed years later. Will the EU offer better terms second time around? Can't see it. The screws will be turned further IMHO.
|
|
|
Post by ag on May 22, 2017 22:32:46 GMT
If the UK had taken the euro as our currency there would have been a vote in parliament. of course. Not everyone governs like Theresa May
|
|
|
Post by flean on May 31, 2017 12:32:50 GMT
|
|
|
Post by foley on May 31, 2017 12:55:41 GMT
hink I read we are still the single biggest. And that's not just my view dear that it would be bad for them, it's also merkles and a few other main players. Negotiating trade deals takes time. Not having a trade deal with the UK would be bad for Germany& the rest of the EU. Not having a trade deal with Germany & the Rest of the EU would be a complete disaster for the UK. And walking away as your first position as part of showboating for domestic consumption is just stupid. Sure it takes time, but I believe that where there is a will there is a way. The EU claim to have around 50 trade agreements in place. So if both sides really wanted a trade deal there are plenty of templates to base one on. My concern all along has been that the EU will cut off their noses to spite their face and want to 'punish' the UK. If that's true, then sure a trade deal with be difficult. I would suspect that some pragmatism may come into play as time goes on (Merkel will be under a lot of pressure to come to some agreement to assist the German car industry as an example. Interestingly there are a whole load of nations that do NOT have a trade deal with the EU. At the moment the UK is not allowed to have a trade deal with any country that does not have one with the EU. Like with everything there will be positives and negatives. I agree totally that no trade deal will have a negative impact on the Uk (and Germany and the rest of Europe). How big an impact based on the UK forming other trade deals who knows? My suspicion is that even if a load of economists came up with their best predictions they would probably be wrong ...
|
|
|
Post by flean on Jun 13, 2017 21:04:32 GMT
|
|
|
Post by bashamwonderland on Jun 13, 2017 22:42:25 GMT
Define "good deal". Hard Brexit please.
|
|