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Post by barmyarmy on Jul 18, 2012 10:11:19 GMT
The difference with Firoz is he had the money but didn't put it into the club - well not enough of it. Plus he didn't really have the clubs interest at heart. Swindon's backers have the money and they ARE putting it in, and it seems they want the club to succeed. I agree with that Moobs, the tricky bit is do they want it back and when? If they do then how are they going to get it? If its a gamble of buying a league 2 club, pump some money in, get to the championship and sell at a huge profit then fine. But what happens if they dont get there? Keep pumping money in or cut losses and run? Which is worse?
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Post by moobs on Jul 18, 2012 10:47:29 GMT
The difference with Firoz is he had the money but didn't put it into the club - well not enough of it. Plus he didn't really have the clubs interest at heart. Swindon's backers have the money and they ARE putting it in, and it seems they want the club to succeed. Wasn't Ka$$am pretty much investing part of the money that was being generated by (1) the old stadium sell-off and (2) the assets on the Grenoble Road site which were intended to be owned by the club anyway? Yes Swindon's backers are pumping cash in but you don't know their long-term intentions. They could walk away in a couple of seasons and the club would implode under it's own debt mountain. Same arguement that you have made in favour of Arsenal's business model over Man City/Chelsea. But surely any huge debt will be owed to themselves? They have a vested interest in making it work, they're not going to suddenly demand £10M, for example, from a club with no assets or liquidity, the club might go down the toilet but so will all their cash....
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Post by helsinkiyellow on Jul 18, 2012 11:36:55 GMT
What I find strange is that the Arsenal owners have a vested interest in success having invested far more into their club to become shareholders. Yet they don't seem to be willing to invest further to drive the club forward and it's at risk of stagnating?
If the Swindon lot wish to pull out, then by calling in the debt in one hit would result in the club closing down and the owners getting back a fraction of what they originally invested. That ain't gonna happen.
Therefore a more realistic (possible) exit strategý would be refusing to put any further cash in and for the club to cut its cloth accordingly. Those big earning players (in relation to revenue) would have to be sold in a fire sale with much of the proceeds from transfer fees being repaid back to the owners.
Players would be acquired on free transfers and cheap wages resulting in a downward spiral of poorer results -> falling revenue (commercial/gate receipts) -> less investments on the field -> more further bad results etc etc.
The owners would probably max out external sources of finance attracting interest charges and they themselves may begin charging interest to the club or and/for the debt owed by the club to be paid back in installments.
Eventually somebody may offer a few £k to take the club off their hands and they get to walk away with some of their investment. As I said earlier, the owners are taking the roulette option and it could go horribly well for them - premier league promotion and suddenly no debts!
But if it goes wrong, the owners loose a few million but had some fun in the process. It would be written off as one investment which didn't quite come off and the loss probably wouldn't register on their overall wealth.
But the club would be screwed for years after.
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Post by ianmoore82 on Jul 18, 2012 12:09:34 GMT
Now I agree with that. but my point is that for clubs of our size a few years of buzz and success is worth it even if you end up back where you came from.
We are in League 2 at the moment, hoping to get in and around promotion this coming season - but there is no guarantee of that.
Football is no different a business model to any other - invest to progress. At the moment it seems our level of investment is just enough to remain where we are.
All I'm trying to say is that for clubs of our size a few years of excitement is worth it even if we end back up in League 2.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2012 12:13:11 GMT
Now I agree with that. but my point is that for clubs of our size a few years of buzz and success is worth it even if you end up back where you came from. All I'm trying to say is that for clubs of our size a few years of excitement is worth it even if we end back up in League 2. If we end up back in L2 I would agree with you. A bit like our three season adventure into tier one. But what if we were to fold as a result? Huge risks involved in spending high in the hope of success.
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Post by didcotox on Jul 18, 2012 12:22:39 GMT
Is hate to jeopardize our club for a few years of success driven by money. We will get there but we will do it fairly. There was an interesting piece on ssn yesterday from the chairman of the football league. He basically said clubs are fed up with teams in financial difficulties when only months previously those same clubs were outbidding them for players with effectively money they didn't have
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Post by ianmoore82 on Jul 18, 2012 12:24:45 GMT
But be honest, do you really think that Oxford can attain and sustain Championship football by only spending money it generates?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2012 12:28:22 GMT
But be honest, do you really think that Oxford can attain and sustain Championship football by only spending money it generates? We can attain it, but probably not sustain it for more than a few successive seasons. This is a regular topic on here, but I think we are a L1 / Championship yo yo club at best. Probably similar "size" to Peterborough, who struggled to average 10,000 in the Championship. The odd spell in tier two would be fine with me.
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Post by ianmoore82 on Jul 18, 2012 12:37:40 GMT
I'd agree with that but what sort of timescale would you put on it?
I know the majority will still turn up no matter what league we are in, but bumming around League 2 for too long will see the 'marginal' support dwindle, making it even harder to achieve our aims with less money being generated
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Post by moobs on Jul 18, 2012 12:38:17 GMT
What I find strange is that the Arsenal owners have a vested interest in success having invested far more into their club to become shareholders. Yet they don't seem to be willing to invest further to drive the club forward and it's at risk of stagnating? The main difference being that Arsenal acheive their objectives of finishing in the Champions league places. If it was underacheiving then it would need investment
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Post by barmyarmy on Jul 18, 2012 13:01:47 GMT
Now I agree with that. but my point is that for clubs of our size a few years of buzz and success is worth it even if you end up back where you came from. We are in League 2 at the moment, hoping to get in and around promotion this coming season - but there is no guarantee of that. Football is no different a business model to any other - invest to progress. At the moment it seems our level of investment is just enough to remain where we are. All I'm trying to say is that for clubs of our size a few years of excitement is worth it even if we end back up in League 2. The trouble is we may end up where we came from but far bigger clubs than us have found out that when in decline its hard to stop the ball rolling. Leeds, Sheffield clubs, Man City, Southampton, Norwich, Swansea, Pompey etc have suffered multiple relegations before flattening out and working their way back. There is no way I would want a bit of excitement to end up back in the conference. Anyway, Wilders budget is more than big enough that if managed correctly can get us out of this league. The debate should be whether or not to invest if and when we are in league 1 to take another step forward.
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Post by moobs on Jul 18, 2012 13:21:47 GMT
Alot of those clubs have bounced back stronger. Look at Southampton, when they went into League 1 they were talking about throwing them out of the league altogether, a few later, they're a Premiership force again.
Nothing ventured....
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Post by barmyarmy on Jul 18, 2012 14:07:34 GMT
Alot of those clubs have bounced back stronger. Look at Southampton, when they went into League 1 they were talking about throwing them out of the league altogether, a few later, they're a Premiership force again. Nothing ventured.... A premiership force? ?? Bloody Hell. More are trying to get back where they came from and more still (Pompey, Rangers, Luton, Darlo etc) are still waiting to hit the ground they are falling that far.
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Post by helsinkiyellow on Jul 18, 2012 14:16:46 GMT
Alot of those clubs have bounced back stronger. Look at Southampton, when they went into League 1 they were talking about throwing them out of the league altogether, a few later, they're a Premiership force again. Nothing ventured.... Nothing ventured? So please explain why you don't feel the Arsenal board should venture forward with some additional investment and have a real crack at glory? I used to work with a load of Gooners, they would laugh in your face if you told them that the club's objective is Champs League qualification! Minimum requirement, but no more. Mind you, they are season ticket holders so I would expect them to know more than you. How have Southampton bounced back stronger?! They have only just returned to the league they once spent 27 consecutive years in! And that has been on the back of a genuine philanthropist's fortune. Pompey are fucked, Sheffield United are in L1 once more, Sheffield Wednesday and Leeds are shadows of their former selves, Norwich are the proverbial yo-yo club... Man City won the lottery with their new owners but their expenditure is not sustainable long-term and Swansea have benefited hugely from a very supportive local council (take note OCC!) constructing a stadium for them. I really don't think there is much evidence to suggest that clubs that go for it and bust out return stronger in the longer term.
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Post by helsinkiyellow on Jul 22, 2012 7:12:06 GMT
Bradford sign A Connell on a free, 12 months after joining the scum for a fee. Another six-figure sum just written off! J Smith has also rejoined York City for an undisclosed fee but no doubt at a loss for our friends down the road.
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Post by ianmoore82 on Jul 22, 2012 9:06:14 GMT
I think they gave both players free transfers.
They were/are desperate to get these players off the wage list to adhere to the salary cap.
Personally, I reckon they have a fair chance of going up again - now that's when it will get interesting financially. Will they indulge DiCanio yet again and strive for the PL - if they don't he will be off.
Seems very similar to, say, Bristol City or Preston - they gave it a real crack in the Championship for 2-3 years, both getting to the play-offs but falling short and now Preston have bombed and City appear to be in the same cycle.
Perhaps for clubs of our size this is how it will always be - a few years of success surrounded by seasons of dross
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