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Post by saddletramp on Feb 21, 2012 22:45:18 GMT
Ive revised my thoughts on how many points we will need for automatic promotion/play offs. I think we have a slim chance of reaching the automatics,i think the scum are home and hosed,so its 6 teams playing for 2 spots, my thoughts on the others. Southend seem to be coming off the rails at the moment, Crawley,think there are things going on behind the scenes,and might be ripe for the taking. Cheltenham,my favourites for 1 of the other auto spots. Shrewsbury,despite tonights result,will be there or there abouts, Torquay,think they have had there run and will fall away,losing at home to Bradford after leading was a bad day at the office. Oxford,just need to convert more draws into wins,we have actually lost the same amount of games as the scum! All in all im going for 82 points for an automatic spot,or 32 points from 15 games,a big ask,but victories over the other contenders gives us a chance. Play offs,if we dont do it now,ill want answers as to why not. Other contenders, Port Vale,inconsistent, Rotherham,not for me, Accrington,to small of a squad, Cant see Burton or Gillingham doing it, So that leaves Crewe,i think they might well be the biggest threat. Points for a play off spot, 69 or 19 points in 15 games. So all we need to do is win our last 8 home games,thats 74 points that leaves us needing 8 points from 7 away games for an automatic spot. Im tired,i think lack of sleep is affecting my judgement. I can dream!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2012 22:49:24 GMT
Saying that the Scum are 'home and hosed' is one of the stupidest things i've ever read on this forum, with the amount of games left and the number of teams close to them.
I posted a thread a few weeks ago saying if we string a few wins together we could easily be back in the fight for automatic promotion, and everyone said I was wrong. We will see, but seen as we are starting to pick up points when we're playing this badly, if we get some confidence and pick up form we could easily finish in the autos, particularly as the top 6 are constantly dropping points.
And by the way scum were VERY lucky tonight (goalkeeper blunder, should of had a player sent off and Shrews denied a stone wall penno)
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Post by John Lennon on Feb 21, 2012 22:56:25 GMT
Swindon are dead certs for automatic promotion. Everyone now thinks it. Or have they peaked to soon.....
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Post by scotters on Feb 21, 2012 22:57:12 GMT
Amazing how much more positive the league table looks after tonight. Not long ago the top six looked a mile away, but now the places above us seem within reach.
Can we make the top 3? Have to say it's unlikely, but if we can string a few more wins together, who knows...
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Post by swindonlad (Swindon fan) on Feb 21, 2012 23:05:46 GMT
With your away form as it is and the teams above starting to bottle it i can see you closing that gap.
We were f*cking awful tonight to be fair but will take it,very lucky
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Post by scoob on Feb 21, 2012 23:27:00 GMT
At the moment it looks like something like 86 points will be needed for automatic promotion. So that is 36 points from 15 games (eg 12 wins - 3 losses) so not impossible but still unlikely.
70 points may be enough to get into the play offs but I prefer that we aim for at least 75 as we have several teams lining up behind us so thats 25 points from 15 games (eg 8 wins - 1 draw - 6 losses or 7 wins - 4 draws - 4 losses).
We have picked up more than half of our points this season against teams in the bottom eight but only have 5 more games against teams currently down there. However, we have six games left against the other teams in the top eight so plenty of six pointers to come but we will have to do better than we have done so far against the top teams where we have won 3 drawn 2 and lost three.
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Post by oxymoron on Feb 22, 2012 0:12:51 GMT
Projected table see us finish on 74 points based on both current and season long form - that's a 7th place finish. This sort of table doesn't reflect the impact of the teams in the top 7 having to play each. I think every team has three "six pointers" in their run in, so it could be a very different picture come March.....
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Post by saddletramp on Feb 22, 2012 0:19:19 GMT
Saying that the Scum are 'home and hosed' is one of the stupidest things i've ever read on this forum, with the amount of games left and the number of teams close to them. .................................................................................................................................... Is that right,well just give your local bookie a ring and ask them what price they will give you on Swindon winning the league never mind finishing in the top 3. Ill tell you what odds my bookie is giving,4/5 to win it and 1/8 to finish in the top 3 , 1/8 !!!! as a gambler of over 35 years 1/8 in my book is home and hosed. Swindon have 9 home games left, their next 3 are,Accrington,Burton and Dagenham and they also have Plymouth,Northampton and Bristol that looks like 18 points to me,so that would be 79 points with another 10 games to play. Look at the number of teams close to them you say,what teams? have you looked at the league table tonight. Cheltenham 1 point behind but played 2 games more, Southend 2 points behind but played 2 games more Shrewsbury 4 points behind but played 1 game more, Torquay 5 points behind but played 1 game more Crawley 6 points behind played 2 games less Oxford 11 points behind but played 1 game more. Swindon also have the best goal difference. So please do tell me which of these 3 teams are going to stop Swindon getting automatic promotion? Breaks my heart but Swindon are home and hosed. Oh yeah they also have away games at Bradford,Morecambe,Barnet and Aldershot,hardly home bankers those 4. P.S.Crawleys next 4 games include Shrewsbury,Southend and Torquay so points lost all round there.
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Post by yellowjam on Feb 22, 2012 0:35:15 GMT
76 points should be enough. 15 to play & now on 50 points (7W 5D 3L)
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Post by tatabanya on Feb 22, 2012 0:44:46 GMT
Saying that the Scum are 'home and hosed' is one of the stupidest things i've ever read on this forum, with the amount of games left and the number of teams close to them. .................................................................................................................................... Is that right,well just give your local bookie a ring and ask them what price they will give you on Swindon winning the league never mind finishing in the top 3. Ill tell you what odds my bookie is giving,4/5 to win it and 1/8 to finish in the top 3 , 1/8 !!!! as a gambler of over 35 years 1/8 in my book is home and hosed. Swindon have 9 home games left, their next 3 are,Accrington,Burton and Dagenham and they also have Plymouth,Northampton and Bristol that looks like 18 points to me,so that would be 79 points with another 10 games to play. Look at the number of teams close to them you say,what teams? have you looked at the league table tonight. Cheltenham 1 point behind but played 2 games more, Southend 2 points behind but played 2 games more Shrewsbury 4 points behind but played 1 game more, Torquay 5 points behind but played 1 game more Crawley 6 points behind played 2 games less Oxford 11 points behind but played 1 game more. Swindon also have the best goal difference. So please do tell me which of these 3 teams are going to stop Swindon getting automatic promotion? Breaks my heart but Swindon are home and hosed. Oh yeah they also have away games at Bradford,Morecambe,Barnet and Aldershot,hardly home bankers those 4. P.S.Crawleys next 4 games include Shrewsbury,Southend and Torquay so points lost all round there. Sure we would have been similar prices for automatic promotion after a couple of good months in the BSP. Look what happened there.
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Post by saddletramp on Feb 22, 2012 0:53:38 GMT
Sure we would have been similar prices for automatic promotion after a couple of good months in the BSP. Look what happened there
I agree,but dont forget what a crap start they had to the season,they have only lost 1 game since September,do you really see them losing 6 or more games before the end of the season? Because thats what they are going to have to do to blow promotion,10 wins out of their last 16 games will give them 91 points,surely enough to go up.
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Post by dartfordox (RIP) on Feb 22, 2012 7:52:41 GMT
The highest points won by a relegated team was by ourselves in 06/07 with 49 pts.
We passed that total last night so I reckon we are safe.
That same season Lincoln got in the play offs with 66 pts.
I think 69 pts will be enough this year - 5 wins 4 draws and 6 losses will be enough.
I reckon we can forget about automatic promotion.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2012 8:54:09 GMT
Saying that the Scum are 'home and hosed' is one of the stupidest things i've ever read on this forum, with the amount of games left and the number of teams close to them. .................................................................................................................................... Is that right,well just give your local bookie a ring and ask them what price they will give you on Swindon winning the league never mind finishing in the top 3. Ill tell you what odds my bookie is giving,4/5 to win it and 1/8 to finish in the top 3 , 1/8 !!!! as a gambler of over 35 years 1/8 in my book is home and hosed. Swindon have 9 home games left, their next 3 are,Accrington,Burton and Dagenham and they also have Plymouth,Northampton and Bristol that looks like 18 points to me,so that would be 79 points with another 10 games to play. Look at the number of teams close to them you say,what teams? have you looked at the league table tonight. Cheltenham 1 point behind but played 2 games more, Southend 2 points behind but played 2 games more Shrewsbury 4 points behind but played 1 game more, Torquay 5 points behind but played 1 game more Crawley 6 points behind played 2 games less Oxford 11 points behind but played 1 game more. Swindon also have the best goal difference. So please do tell me which of these 3 teams are going to stop Swindon getting automatic promotion? Breaks my heart but Swindon are home and hosed. Oh yeah they also have away games at Bradford,Morecambe,Barnet and Aldershot,hardly home bankers those 4. P.S.Crawleys next 4 games include Shrewsbury,Southend and Torquay so points lost all round there. Burton, Plymouth and Bristol will all be very tough, and as we've seen any team in this league can get a result anywhere. An dhow is 8-1 'home and hosed'? If they lost a couple in a row you wouldn't be saying that. 'Home and hosed' suggests they are definitely going up, and if you genuinely think that you are either a complete fool or a scumdon fan in disguise.
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Post by ox4eva on Feb 22, 2012 9:00:09 GMT
To be honest i think 7th is the best we can do, could not care less where teams like scumdon end up and just keep looking at the games in hand others around us have!
Long as we can keep a gap between us and 8th place then i am happy enough (yes of course i want more, but i'm being realistic)
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Post by saddletramp on Feb 23, 2012 10:42:07 GMT
Burton, Plymouth and Bristol will all be very tough, and as we've seen any team in this league can get a result anywhere. An dhow is 8-1 'home and hosed'? If they lost a couple in a row you wouldn't be saying that. 'Home and hosed' suggests they are definitely going up, and if you genuinely think that you are either a complete fool or a scumdon fan in disguise.
Read my post if you are going to have a go,i didnt say they were 8-1 i said 1/8,that means to win £1 i have to put on £8, not £1 to win £8 !!!! Ask anybody who knows about gambling and he will tell you that 1/8 is "home and hosed" If i am a complete fool i will give you 4/1 that they dont win promotion,so if you want put on £10,£100,£1000 or any amount of money you want i wiill accomadate you. Because what this "complete fool" does know about is gambling,so mr thatpeterleven if you are so clever and i am so foolish,how much do you want to put on ?
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Post by saddletramp on Feb 23, 2012 11:01:06 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2012 11:02:05 GMT
Ask anybody who knows about gambling and he will tell you that 1/8 is "home and hosed" agreed with the others dropping points I can see the scum winning the title by 10 points or more. While the sight of them at the top is obviously not pretty, those other 2 automatic spots are starting to look a bit easier to reach...
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Post by charliesghost on Feb 23, 2012 11:08:30 GMT
Saying that the Scum are 'home and hosed' is one of the stupidest things i've ever read on this forum, with the amount of games left and the number of teams close to them. I posted a thread a few weeks ago saying if we string a few wins together we could easily be back in the fight for automatic promotion, and everyone said I was wrong. We will see, but seen as we are starting to pick up points when we're playing this badly, if we get some confidence and pick up form we could easily finish in the autos, particularly as the top 6 are constantly dropping points. And by the way scum were VERY lucky tonight (goalkeeper blunder, should of had a player sent off and Shrews denied a stone wall penno) I think the issue is that we just aren't good enough to win that amount of games. We've just played two bottom-of-the-table sides at home, and scraped two wins. And played a mediocre side away and got a decent point. Despite the points tally, that is not the form of a side who - when the matches against better opponents roll along - are going to strong together a pile of results. As we saw against Cheltenham, Crawley and Swindon (where we were totally steam-rollered, but somehow won), there are simply bigger, stronger, more driven teams above us. My one hope for something dramatically good happening is that Wilder has finally been forced into a formation and straegy change. He's brought in a lower-league target man and a winger. Halle-bloody-lujah! That has freed Constable, who has looked far more of a threat since Rendell came in. Separately, being part of a midfield two suits Peter Leven better. It's just simple: Whing tackles, gives ball to Leven, who then has wide options to pass it to. Again, on Tuesday I thought Leven looked excellent - really took the game by the scruff of the neck when we were drifting. So.... conclusion.... basically, we haven't been good enough thus far for anything other than a lucky play-off win. But a combination of good and bad luck - Constable not leaving; Alfie and Pittman getting injured; Rendell coming in - may just, just crack it. Ironic that the only way to win is for the manager's strategy to be unwittingly destroyed!
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Post by alessandro on Feb 23, 2012 13:01:02 GMT
Totally agree Charlie.
We have the calibre of player in the main. Certainly the defence as a set and as a group are excellent for this level.
In midfield we have the best in the division centring the team. And up front we have one of the best strikers in the division.
I think for too long we've laboured at trying to prove that 4-3-3 is transferrable from Conference to league 2. Im not sure it isn't transferrable, but it doesn't feel that its provided us any advantage. It's simply been something for the players to contend with.
Potter and Pittman would, in my opinion, potentially make very decent wingers. Holmes certainly does, and Johnson apparently played well.
Our main risk now until the end of the season, if we do stick with 4-4-2, is that players get injured. As the squad has become thin through injury. We dont have striker and winger cover and so it may force Wilders hand back to the old 4-3-3 with square pegs and rounded holes becoming friends again.
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Post by robie on Feb 23, 2012 13:39:09 GMT
97 Title winner 2008 93 Title winner 2009 89 Title winners 2007(Average Points for Title winners) 88 3rd place 2008 86 Title winners 2006, Title winner 2010 85 3rd place 2007, Title winner 2008 82 3rd place 2009(Average points needed to finish 3rd) 81 3rd place 2006 80 3rd place 2010 78 play offs 2008, 3rd place 2008 72 play offs 2009 71 play offs 2007(Average points needed to finish 7th) 69 play offs 2008 68 play offs 2010 66 play offs 2006
61 Swindon 60 Cheltenham 59 Southend --- 57 Shrewsbury 56 Crawley, Torquay 50 Oxford --- 45 Port Vale, Rotherham, Crewe 43 Accringon , Burton 42 Gillingham
Next five games: Swindon------ Accrington, Burton, @oxford, Dag & Red, Cheltenham Cheltenham-- Burton, Northampton, @morecambe, @swindon, Gillingham Southend----- @morecambe, @burton, Crawley, Accrington, @hereford Shrewsbury-- Crawley, @crewe, Oxford, Burton, @plymouth Crawley------- @shrewsbury, Torquay, @southend, @macclesfield, Aldershot Torquay------ @gillingham, @crawley, Aldershot, Bristol, @rotherham Oxford-------- Macclesfield, Swindon, @shrewsbury, @bradford, Rotherham Port Vale---- @northampton, Crewe, @accrington, Burton, Barnet Rotherham-- Bristol, @barnet, Crewe, Plymouth, Torquay Crewe-------- Wimbledon, @port Vale, Shrewsbury, @rotherham, @gillingham.
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Post by lincolnyellow1 on Feb 23, 2012 23:52:51 GMT
Shrewsbury, Crawley and Torquay have very tricky fixtures in that cameo........... This is my prediction of the points tally from the promotion chasers...... Scumdon - (3 x w / 2 x d) - 11 pts ........... 71 Cheltenham (2 x w / 3 x d) - 9 pts ........... 69 Southend (1 x w / 3 x d / 1 x L) 6 pts ...... 65 Shrewsbury (2 x w / 3 x d) 9 pts ............. 66 Crawley (3 x w / 2 x d) 11 pts ................. 66 Torquay (1 x w / 1 x d / 3 x L) 4 pts ........ 60 OXFORD UTD (2 x w / 2 x d / 1 x L) 8 pts . 58 Port Vale (2 x w / 1 x d / 2 x L) 7 pts ....... 52 Rotherham (3 x w / 1 x d / 1 x L) - 10 pts .55 Crewe (1 x w / 1 x d / 3 x L) 4 pts ............49 . 6th position is well within our sights, Rotherham look to be the new threat with 4 out of the next 5 games at home (and their away record ain't bad.....................
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Post by Long John Silver on Feb 24, 2012 8:22:00 GMT
I've been on the BBC predictor site, and have us in third place by the middle of March. Easy!
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Post by mintyshoe on Feb 24, 2012 9:09:29 GMT
Where's the predictor these days LJS?
Provided we can beat Maccles, the next set of fixtures is looking good for us:
Cheltenham vs. Burton Gillingham vs. Torquay Rotherham vs. Rovers Swindon vs. Accrington Northampton (mark 2) vs. Port Vale Shrewsbury vs. Crawley
So either we catch up with the pack at the top or we pull away from the chasing pack. Decent but can't underachieve against teams like Macclesfield! If we can't beat them we don't deserve to be comfortably in the play-offs.
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Post by gottagetbetta on Feb 24, 2012 10:07:47 GMT
I was in full "Yes Dear" mode with the present wife last night while she was chuntering on and I was trying to watch the TV - it was only this morning when she said she would "sort out our week away in May" that I suddenly thought "Play off dates!" as we look likely to feature has anyone got the dates? To get back to the theme of the thread I think an automatic slot may be a touch to far, after all this is Oxford and we never, repeat never, do things the easy way, an automatic slot would be far to simples.
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Post by dartfordox (RIP) on Feb 24, 2012 10:10:07 GMT
Where's the predictor these days LJS?Provided we can beat Maccles, the next set of fixtures is looking good for us: Cheltenham vs. Burton Gillingham vs. Torquay Rotherham vs. Rovers Swindon vs. Accrington Northampton (mark 2) vs. Port Vale Shrewsbury vs. Crawley So either we catch up with the pack at the top or we pull away from the chasing pack. Decent but can't underachieve against teams like Macclesfield! If we can't beat them we don't deserve to be comfortably in the play-offs. Put this in your 'favourites'. news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_3/predictor/default.stm
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Post by rollsy on Feb 24, 2012 10:54:23 GMT
Where's the predictor these days LJS?Provided we can beat Maccles, the next set of fixtures is looking good for us: Cheltenham vs. Burton Gillingham vs. Torquay Rotherham vs. Rovers Swindon vs. Accrington Northampton (mark 2) vs. Port Vale Shrewsbury vs. Crawley So either we catch up with the pack at the top or we pull away from the chasing pack. Decent but can't underachieve against teams like Macclesfield! If we can't beat them we don't deserve to be comfortably in the play-offs. Put this in your 'favourites'. news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_3/predictor/default.stmIve just done the predictor, Got us in 6th position, 1 point ahead of Vale Rotherham and Torquay with 1 game to go. Ours being the trip to Vale!!!!
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Post by ZeroTheHero on Feb 24, 2012 11:05:33 GMT
Ok, I've gone through the rest of the season and entered what all the results will be. Crawley are champions, with Shrewsbury and Swindon as the other promoted teams. Playoff teams are Cheltenham, Southend, Torquay and Oxford. Relegated are Hereford and Dagenham. We scrape into the playoffs in 7th on goal difference over Crewe, but need a last match of the season draw away at Port Vale to do so. Playoffs is us v Cheltenham and Southend vs Torquay. Final is Oxford vs Torquay and we win (of course) to go up. You read it here first!
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Post by scoob on Feb 24, 2012 11:40:45 GMT
If we win tomorrow we will probably need 16 or 17 points from 14 games to get into the play offs. We will have picked up 15 points in our last 8 games so we should be aiming for higher than 7th so that we go into the play-offs on form.
However, if all of the top ten maintain the same form that they have over the last 8 games then we will need 74 points to beat Crewe into 7th place. Teams like Cheltenham (11 points from 8 games), Southend (10pts) and Crawley (10) are on poor runs of form but our 13 points from 8 games means that they have too many points available for us to catch them unless our form significantly increases.
Based on current form the final table will be:
1 Swindon 109 2 Torquay 95 3 Shrewsbury 87 4 Cheltenham 78 5 Crawley 76 6 Southend 76 7 OUFC 74 8 Crewe 72
I can't see Swindon and Torquay gaining the predicted points but I feel that the rest are realistic. Fifth place for us is a realistic aim and even 4th is possible with a modest uplift in our form provided the rest play ball.
Incidentally we are the only team where our current form matches our season long form.
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Post by yellowg on Feb 24, 2012 12:04:01 GMT
My thoughts are....our points total is the 7th best in the league so far. Scope for improvement but a good performance to date.
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Post by salaghaf on Feb 24, 2012 19:51:04 GMT
My thought is that we have only lost 1 game in 12.
The U's are going up!
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